Whose flagship will run aground?
Nominations have closed on the May 7th local elections. In the 21 wards of Trafford, we have five parties contesting every seat:
| Party | Candidates |
|---|---|
| Conservative | 21 |
| Greens | 21 |
| Labour | 21 |
| Lib Dems | 21 |
| Reform | 21 |
The Reform breakaway party Advance, are contesting 6 seats. In addition there’s 2 independents and there is a lone Social Democratic Party candidate in Sale Central.
What’s going to happen on May 8th?
Ben Walker is a respected pollster who came closest to predicting the last General Election result. He writes for the New Statesman and is founder of the Britain Elects aggregation site. He’s also a Labour Councillor in not so far off, Chester. I have a lot of time for Ben.
A Labour bloodbath across England? Won’t it be worse in Trafford?
If that’s the forecast for England, what on earth is it going to like in Trafford where we’ve been hit by one the worst government settlements in the country? We’ve had to put council tax up beyond the maximum allowed, we’ve had to borrow millions just to keep the town hall doors open. It’s surely got to be worse here?
Here’s my take.
I predict Labour will remain comfortably the largest party and will win the popular vote.
There will be no bloodbath here.
Yet, it could still be seminal in terms of the Tories vacating their position as contenders for power.
It’s often that the biggest factor is the quality of your opposition. Labour is extremely fortunate that the current Tories are contesting their right flank more than trying to win the centre ground.
Clearly, the presence of Reform and Advance are factors in this, but it’s got to be said there’s little evidence of the Tories wanting to widen their appeal. We’ll see, but this is Trafford, it was once their flagship.
Labour will be glad too, to have a Lib Dem party in Trafford that’s made itself into a single issue party focused entirely on Timperley.
The Greens may prove themselves to be the biggest threat, but it’s proved hard for them to get a foothold in the north of the borough. If they can take a seat in Old Trafford, they’ll be pleased with their progress, but only if they hold on to their Altrincham and Hale seats.
Reform managed to lose a seat this week to the Greens in a Kent by-election. The public are picking up that Reform can’t run councils. They’re struggling in Kent, they’re putting Council Tax up in Worcestershire by the largest amount in the country.
The real question will be as to whether a solid performance across the wards by Labour will be seen as a ringing endorsement of their programme. I would argue that you need to look at the total Labour vote, not just the seats.
2024 votes across Trafford
| Labour | 29,338 | 41.83% |
| Conservatives | 17,645 | 25.16% |
| Green | 12,643 | 18.03% |
| Lib Dem | 7,983 | 11.38% |
| Reform | 1,595 | 2.27% |
| Independents | 842 | 1.20% |
| TUSC | 88 | 0.13% |
| 70,134 |
Can the Greens come second?
Reform only contested a handful of seats in 2024, so it’s inevitable their vote will grow. Could we see the Greens come second in the vote this time around? It would only require a 3.57% swing from the Conservatives. Given the disproportionate impact of Reform, I am going to stick my neck out and make that my prediction.
It’s possible Labour lose more votes, but it’s increasingly likely the Tories will suffer the bigger fall from grace.
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