Author: Mike C

One week to go

There’s an election going on. Who’d know it?

It’s a daily conversation on the media. We’re told it’s going to be a defining moment. Yet in Trafford, speaking for myself, in Lostock and Barton ward, it doesn’t feel to have caught alight.

I know the Labour team here have been working hard, I’ve even delivered a couple of leaflet rounds myself, but where’s the buzz? And ok, I’d like to think we’ve worked hard as Labour for the ward, but we know that Brand-Labour is not at peak popularity, so why is it so quiet?

I’ve seen a few Green Party posters and garden stakes, so there’s some activity out there and they’re on record as saying they’re targeting Longford ward. I received a national leaflet from their party, but nothing local.

I know Reform voters will be an element in this election. Reform have been the big winners in council by-elections this past 12 months. However, those by-election wins were not achieved under the radar. They employed the exact same methods that the established parties apply. We all saw them pile into Gorton and Denton. Yes, I know they have their own TV station and are skilled in social media, so they’re not without election resources that are being applied in Lostock and Barton, but there’s still no substitute for knocking on doors. I think Reform will be delighted to get to 250 votes here.

The Conservative Party in Trafford is an enigma. They remain the natural challenge to Labour in Lostock and Barton, but they’re flailing. The centre ground abandoned, I see no evidence of a strategy to capture the agenda beyond riding the occasional wave of discontent.

Making up the five parties, we have the Forward with Timperley Party standing as Lib Dems here. I’m being rude, but they really do need take an interest in life outside Timperley. If anybody here has received engagement from the Lib Dems, I’ll take that back.

I think the energy of an election can be a good thing that enables the repair of a party to begin, but where is that energy? The demographics of Trafford still have favourable segments for Labour, the so called Urban progressives and those with young families, for example. So, it will retain a good portion of its vote. At the same time, those segments moving away from Labour are spreading themselves thinly across too many alternatives. There’s a sense that Labour are braced for a trap-door to open, but watching their opponents fight over the lever. I don’t know how it will pan out but my feeling is that the lever will be barely pulled.

Most of the postal votes are already in I think, so for many the election is over. But where was the debate, where was the challenge?

Elections are a time to scrutinise.

I want to celebrate Labour’s family hubs, the sure start centres of today, but I want the party to be challenged on whether they’re reaching every family that needs them.

We’ve seen a lot of road patching in the last couple of months, are we extracting value for money? Are the patches going to last? Are they sufficient quality? Other parties should give their alternative approaches.

Labour at least has a manifesto. I have not been able to find a manifesto from any of the other parties standing here in Lostock and Barton. Isn’t that appalling!

I want to know how other parties propose how to address Trafford’s continuing budget deficit. Trafford’s Conservatives have put together a video at least touching upon the issue, even if their identified waste had no connection to the budget.

Despite the absence of contesting programs, the one thing I will guarantee is that all parties that don’t lose all their seats, will see the election as ringing endorsement of every approach each party adopts for the next 12 months.

Lastly, despite my criticism of each and every party, the greatest culpability probably lies with ourselves. We don’t have to allow this state of affairs. We’ve never had greater ability to hold hustings and publicise them. We have allowed ourselves to be passive observers of an election when it’s our only chance to hold our borough’s leadership to account. It doesn’t have to be like this.

Prediction Votes

Most Votes across Trafford Labour Party
2nd Green Party
3rd Conservative Party
4th Reform Party
5th Liberal Democratic Party

I’m not going to predict seats. There’s some close ones, so it’ll be interesting nonetheless.

Photo by Tom Fisk from Pexels: https://www.pexels.com/photo/vehicles-racing-on-a-racetrack-12646461/

April 30, 2026
May 2026 Local Elections: Predictions for Trafford

Whose flagship will run aground?

Nominations have closed on the May 7th local elections. In the 21 wards of Trafford, we have five parties contesting every seat:

Party Candidates
Conservative 21
Greens 21
Labour 21
Lib Dems 21
Reform 21

The Reform breakaway party Advance, are contesting 6 seats. In addition there’s 2 independents and there is a lone Social Democratic Party candidate in Sale Central.

What’s going to happen when the votes are counted next day on May 8th?

Ben Walker is a respected pollster who came closest to predicting the last General Election result. He writes for the New Statesman and is founder of the Britain Elects aggregation site. He’s also a Labour Councillor in not so far off, Chester. I have a lot of time for Ben.

A Labour bloodbath across England? Won’t it be worse in Trafford?

If that’s the forecast for England, what on earth is it going to like in Trafford where we’ve been hit by one the worst government settlements in the country? We’ve had to put council tax up beyond the maximum allowed, we’ve had to borrow millions just to keep the town hall doors open. It’s surely got to be worse here?

Here’s my take.

I predict Labour will remain comfortably the largest party and will win the popular vote.

There will be no bloodbath here.

Yet, it could still be seminal in terms of the Tories vacating their position as contenders for power.

It’s often that the biggest factor is the quality of your opposition. Labour is extremely fortunate that the current Tories are contesting their right flank more than trying to win the centre ground.

Clearly, the presence of Reform and Advance are factors in this, but it’s got to be said there’s little evidence of the Tories wanting to widen their appeal. We’ll see, but this is Trafford, it was once their flagship.

Labour will be glad too, to have a Lib Dem party in Trafford that’s made itself into a single issue party focused entirely on Timperley.

The Greens may prove themselves to be the biggest threat, but it’s proved hard for them to get a foothold in the north of the borough. If they can take a seat in Old Trafford, they’ll be pleased with their progress, but only if they hold on to their Altrincham and Hale seats.

Reform managed to lose a seat this week to the Greens in a Kent by-election. The public are picking up that Reform can’t run councils. They’re struggling in Kent, they’re putting Council Tax up in Worcestershire by the largest amount in the country.

The real question will be as to whether a solid performance across the wards by Labour will be seen as a ringing endorsement of their programme. I would argue that you need to look at the total Labour vote, not just the seats.

2024 votes across Trafford

Labour 29,338 41.83%
Conservatives 17,645 25.16%
Green 12,643 18.03%
Lib Dem 7,983 11.38%
Reform 1,595 2.27%
Independents 842 1.20%
TUSC 88 0.13%
70,134

Can the Greens come second?

Reform only contested a handful of seats in 2024, so it’s inevitable their vote will grow. Could we see the Greens come second in the vote this time around? It would only require a 3.57% swing from the Conservatives. Given the disproportionate impact of Reform, I am going to stick my neck out and make that my prediction.

It’s possible Labour lose more votes, but it’s increasingly likely the Tories will suffer the bigger fall from grace.

April 11, 2026
Budget 26 – the fallout
Trafford’s 26/27 budget passed its final hurdle when it was approved by council. It was a dreadful meeting that you can watch here in all its glory on YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/live/MUVmRcbQjWw?si=NSBS4Tzz5YQ_zxOG
- The Conservatives accepted the plan to borrow up to £12.6m to support the budget for the year, but verbally rejected the need to increase council tax above the 4.99% ceiling. (There was some knockabout debate about whether their motion did indeed limit the council tax rise, but they were definitely prepared to borrow.)
- The Lib Dems took the view that since we were nowhere near a balanced budget without borrowing, the finance officer should declare bankruptcy under section 114 and demand government intervention.
- The Greens accepted the budget, but because they oppose the relief road in Carrington (although it’s not in the budget), they would vote against the budget.
I voted for the budget and did so unreservedly. It’s my view that the Council Leadership and their officers have correctly held their nerve against further cuts to services and resolved to pressure for a fairer settlement.

What made it a really poor debate was that the architects of our misfortune were almost completely left out of the debate.

I remain a Labour man and will always try to defend their choices, but the Government’s finance settlement is ludicrously miscued. They have rightly targeted areas of higher levels of deprivation for extra funding, but they’ve sourced that funding from middling council areas. Places like Trafford, Warrington and Crewe have all been pushed into taking out huge loans to support day to day spending. Not so long ago, councillors who voted for such budgets would have been personally surcharged. Now government wants us put our budget on the tick and it barely gets a mention.

Northwest Councils requiring borrowing to support revenue.

If you cross the River Mersey in the right places you can travel from Southport to Worcestershire on a continuous route through boroughs receiving the same punishment beating as Trafford.

I’m no fan of Morgan McSweeney’s friend, the Maga hat wearing Steve Reed, who is the Local Government minister that targeted the North West’s commuter belt, but surely he can see these places are not just the homes of premier league footballers, but contain levels of deprivation and isolation just as chronic as inner-cities. We need to get angry.

What happens now?

I suppose it’s easy for me stamping my feet. Trafford’s leadership has to continue to make the case through the normal channels and to seek Greater Manchester support, even assistance. I’d like to see us making a more collective call with the other councils, particularly those in the North West.

The Conservative Party are moving a no-confidence motion at Council tonight that sounds like it’s been dictated to by a caller to Talk Radio. It’s all over the place. It will be a farcical debate that will be lucky to get 15 minutes granted to it. The financial management of the council is the wrong thing to take on, and in any event, we’re about 7 weeks from an election, where the public decide their backing for the council.

Thankfully, I won’t be able to attend tonight’s council meeting, but the Conservatives really ought to pull that motion. It’s just a rant from them.

Finally,

So, this is really the last piece on Budget 26. I’ve enjoyed writing the articles. They’ve helped me focus and try to unpick a budget that wasn’t afforded the level of scrutiny that should be mandatory. That said, the budget that eventually was revealed to councillors is probably the right one. There’ll be a tweak here or there that I’d make, but I don’t think it’s massively wrong.

However, whilst the budget may have emerged from this intact, the democratic mechanics in Trafford have broken and the checks that should enable input from outside the Council Executive and Corporate Leadership simply aren’t functioning. The closedown of council for two by-elections held in quick succession took away 80% of the time normally allotted to budget scrutiny and had no basis in guidance. That is serious.

Just as serious is the lack of public engagement. The community knows that consultation has become a word that the council uses that has no relation to its English meaning. Not so long ago the trajectory was towards co-production of budgets with participation. It’s gone backwards during my time as councillor.

The public have declining confidence in those low-level spending decisions, which roads get prioritised, which parks, where ‘hubs’ are located. This may be the right budget for Trafford, but I doubt the public will believe that it will be administered fairly. They see where money is spent and where it is not spent, but explanations are never easily available and cynicism is a natural consequence.

Councils are not overlords. We as councillors are representatives of the electors, and officers are agents of that representation. We’ve got to allow public into decisions on how their council tax is spent.

Last words

It’s a god-awful settlement from government on how much of the money raised in Trafford can be spent in Trafford. There’s not much else that can be said.

image: Steve Reed Lauren Hurley / No 10 Downing Street, OGL 3 http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3, via Wikimedia Commons
March 18, 2026
Sciencing Health

Delivering world-class research and innovation that improves people’s lives is a core objective of our hospital trust.

We know that research-active hospitals deliver better care with lower mortality rates and provide a better experience for patients.

Major clinical breakthroughs – from developing the world’s first bedside genetic test to prevent permanent deafness in newborns, to delivering world-first treatments for Hunter Syndrome – have taken place within our hospital trust.

As a Governor appointed by the council sit on our Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, I have the privilege of attending governor development days to familiarise various aspects of work in the hospital trust. This week’s development day was a doozy.

The morning talk was a series of presentations, the afternoon we had the chance to see the research going on at Wythenshawe.

Some projects are cutting edge technology and others are really about reaching deep into communities to raise awareness and encourage people to come forward.

We heard about developments in identifying harmful micro-organisms in lungs. In Intensive Care there is a need to quickly identify which anti-microbial drugs will work and which anti-microbial drugs will not work (because the bugs are resistant to the anti-microbial). One way of identifying the best anti-microbial drug is by looking at the DNA of the bug using DNA spectrometry. This can give much quicker results than traditional methods. The speeds in obtaining these results is improving as is the portability of the equipment. They’re using handheld devices when it used to require a machine the size of a fridge.

Higher prevalence of a chronic kidney disease within Afro-Caribbean communities is known to be associated with a gene that a minority of people carry, but there remains reticence in coming forward. We heard from outreach nurses that were raising awareness as well as trying to build a cohort of people to track.

It’s a feature of these types of work that they need volunteer participants. Sometimes participation brings its own rewards, e.g. access to cutting edge drugs or treatments for rare conditions. However, often participation is purely a selfless act.

It was very much a consistent complaint that Wythenshawe’s chronic car parking shortages do have a particular impact. The example given was that volunteer participants do not want to spend 30 mins looking for somewhere to park their car.

There’s obviously ambitious development plans for Wythenshawe Hospital, but they’re not going to come to fruition quickly. We’re going to have to return to this issue. I think my inclination is to reserve more parking for the research function. I don’t think we’re talking a huge amount of car parking, but obviously it would have an impact on others.

Photo by Pavel Danilyuk: https://www.pexels.com/photo/medical-practitioners-doing-a-research-8442280/

March 8, 2026
Setting Trafford’s Budget Pt 8 The Budget is published.

The Final Budget has been published, ready to be put to council on the 5th March.

Trafford Council Budget 2026-27.

In terms of spending choices, as one would expect there’s not a huge difference from the draft budget released in January. The proposed net budget is £274m compared to the £277m originally projected, which is good. It’s about the only good thing on show.

We knew that the Government had determined that we needed to be able to increase Council Tax by an additional 2.5% compared to the standard rise. That 7.5% is therefore built into this final budget.

We’ve been granted the facility to borrow £12.64m for the coming year. This is on top of borrowing £9.6m or thereabouts for the year that’s coming to an end.

Borrowing is not routine, it’s a seismic change.

The act of borrowing to support day to day spending has always been outlawed and rightly so! I don’t like it at all. Fundamentally, it’s borrowing from future budgets. It’s particularly worrying when future finances do not look any rosier.

Given this is a three year settlement, you would hope we could see light at the end of the tunnel, but there’s no sign yet of a balanced budget, albeit there is a narrowed gap in 2028.

I learn from the local democracy reporting service that Sefton is looking to a fire sale of assets to balance its budget. This seems to require Government permission.

Liverpool Echo Sefton selling off assets to balance budget

Trafford hasn’t committed using receipts from its land sales. However, the land sales plan routinely contains the paragraph:

Receipts generated from the disposal of sites as detailed in Category 1 and returns from development of sites detailed in Category 2 are currently earmarked to directly support the Capital Programme, although these could also be used to support the wider strategic management of Council borrowing.

They’ve not used receipts before, as far as I am aware, to support the management of borrowing, but we’ve never been in this position.

The more I think of Trafford, Warrington, Cheshire East and Sefton, the angrier I get on their behalf. I can’t believe how passively we’re all accepting this absolutely dreadful settlement from Government.

Yes, there’s an argument that our council tax level in Trafford is somewhat adrift from what it really ought to be to deliver the standard of service people want, but the comparison with Manchester’s settlement is just too extreme. The difference that’s going to become apparent between Old Trafford and Whalley Range is so unjustifiable it needs to be screamed at Government. I’m appalled.

Budget Documents

The 26/27 Final Budget Proposals (109) pages
Key Parts –
Report of the Director of Finance and Systems on the
Robustness of the Proposed Budget Estimates and the
Adequacy of Financial Reserves (Page 9)
Financial Background (Page 33)
The Budget – Page 59
Savings Proposals – Page 86

Capital Spending

Treasury Management (Debt and Reserves)

Fees, Charges and Allowances (everything from parking to cremation charges)

Budget Scrutiny Response These are the executive’s answers to the recommendations of the scrutiny committee.
(The Scrutiny don’t seem to have been given access to questions over financing the budget gap. It’s certainly not raised.)
Given that effective scrutiny was particular emphasis of the peer review of Trafford, I don’t know that this serves Trafford.

February 19, 2026
How are other councils doing?
What have we done to deserve this?

The Government’s settlement for local government has left some councils in a desperate situation, whilst others are busily working out how they’re going to spend the extra money.

I don’t have to be polite. This is a ridiculous way to proceed. You’re not going to get value for money at either extreme.

Nevertheless, we’re in the spotlight. Are we going to get a visit from the Government inspector? The Bishop of Bath and Wells?Are we on our own?

It’s bleak for us.

So, what about the councils around us?

Manchester

Core Spending Power increases from £786m to £874m, an 11.2% increase. This core spending power equates to £1438 per person.

The budget papers go to scrutiny on Monday 23rd February.

They’re very pleased!

This is a positive settlement for Manchester, by 2028/29 the Council’s overall CSP is forecast to be around 32% higher in cash terms and 24.2% higher in real terms then 2025/26. After accounting for projected population growth this translates to an average 22.9% real terms increase in funding per resident.

Salford

Core Spending Power increases from £399m to £424m, a 6.3% increase. This core spending equates to £1431 per person, not a great deal less than Manchester’s.

The budget goes to cabinet tomorrow 17th February. They’re very pleased!

This settlement marks a fundamental shift in local government funding, with significant redistribution,
new formulas, and a move towards consolidated grants. This settlement will result in the most significant redistribution of funding within the sector in the last 25 years.

Warrington

Continuing anti-clockwise around Trafford’s border we come to Warrington. Like Trafford, Warrington has been allowed to increase its council tax by 7.99%.

Core spending increases from £237m to £242m, a 4.5% increase. This figure is calculated before the extra 2.5% council tax is applied, but it’s noteworthy that the increase in core spending is already less than the increase in council tax. This core spending equates to £1109 per person, substantially down on Manchester and Salford.

Their budget plan goes to scrutiny tonight (16th February). There’s an open acknowledgement they’re in serious difficulty. Their 3 year budget gap has increased from £90m to £130m since December.

It’s fair to say they’re in a perilous position as their cabinet member for finance explains in the accompanying press release.

This is almost a confessional to a person holding a hot poker.

The reports published today detail that our difficulties stem from inadequate budget control, an over-ambitious commercial approach, and several years of unaudited accounts.

We are victim to national issues, such as rising demands and costs for some services, particularly services that support our young people, families and older adults.

But specific local issues have also played a significant role in driving our budget issues.

In recent years, instead of making difficult service cuts when many other councils did, we have relied heavily on income generated from our commercial activity. And, while our commercial portfolio has provided a surplus of around £166 million since 2009, all of this money has been used towards covering successive budget gaps.
Cllr Denis Matthews, Cabinet Member for Finance, Warrington Council

Cheshire East

Continuing our trip around the councils that border Trafford, we come to Cheshire East. Their town hall is based in Macclesfield, but the local authority area comes right up to the outskirts of Altrincham. Cheshire East is in the unenviable position of having a request to increase its council tax refused by government. They wanted a 9% increase but have not been granted any dispensation beyond the standard 4.99%. Politically, they’re facing a vote of no confidence.

Core Spending Power increases from £430m to £452m, a 5.2% increase. This core spending power equates to £1062 per person.

Cheshire East are recognising that even with Government support via EFS this is a difficult position.

The section 151 officer issued the following statement of assurance on the authority’s financial position:
Assurance Statement of the Chief Financial Officer
1. The risks in the 2026/27 budget are predominantly in relation to costs associated with demand in Adult and Children Social Care, the delivery of the Improvement and Transformation programme and the Council’s position on the DSG deficit.
2. Moreover, the inadequate level of general reserves will require the Council to continue to rely on the provision of EFS in order to balance the budget for 2026/27 and future years.
3. This is not a financially sustainable position and the financial challenges for the Council remain acutely difficult. It is only with the support of EFS that the
  Council can set a balanced budget and this is not a sustainable position.
Trafford

Core Spending Power increases from £247m to £251m, an exceptionally paltry 1.9% increase. This core spending power equates to £1041 per person which is the lowest of all these councils.

The draft budget is due to be published tonight. Of the four councils that border Trafford, two are in a parlous position and two are in clover.

Trafford has by far the lowest financial spend of the five councils, yet it collects the most per person when you add in business rate collection.

Some of the negative comments I’ve seen on social media about the financial challenge are a disgrace and there’s a significant political opportunism from people that should know better.

Trafford’s predicament is not one of a spendthrift council. One might argue that council tax was so low that it prevented sufficient flexibility in the reserves.

The graph below shows how Trafford has always lagged its neighbours in terms of council tax. Note the uppermost plot is the England average. All these local rates are lower than the average.

AI generated image by the author using Gemini
February 16, 2026