Category: Labour Party

One week to go

There’s an election going on. Who’d know it?

It’s a daily conversation on the media. We’re told it’s going to be a defining moment. Yet in Trafford, speaking for myself, in Lostock and Barton ward, it doesn’t feel to have caught alight.

I know the Labour team here have been working hard, I’ve even delivered a couple of leaflet rounds myself, but where’s the buzz? And ok, I’d like to think we’ve worked hard as Labour for the ward, but we know that Brand-Labour is not at peak popularity, so why is it so quiet?

I’ve seen a few Green Party posters and garden stakes, so there’s some activity out there and they’re on record as saying they’re targeting Longford ward. I received a national leaflet from their party, but nothing local.

I know Reform voters will be an element in this election. Reform have been the big winners in council by-elections this past 12 months. However, those by-election wins were not achieved under the radar. They employed the exact same methods that the established parties apply. We all saw them pile into Gorton and Denton. Yes, I know they have their own TV station and are skilled in social media, so they’re not without election resources that are being applied in Lostock and Barton, but there’s still no substitute for knocking on doors. I think Reform will be delighted to get to 250 votes here.

The Conservative Party in Trafford is an enigma. They remain the natural challenge to Labour in Lostock and Barton, but they’re flailing. The centre ground abandoned, I see no evidence of a strategy to capture the agenda beyond riding the occasional wave of discontent.

Making up the five parties, we have the Forward with Timperley Party standing as Lib Dems here. I’m being rude, but they really do need take an interest in life outside Timperley. If anybody here has received engagement from the Lib Dems, I’ll take that back.

I think the energy of an election can be a good thing that enables the repair of a party to begin, but where is that energy? The demographics of Trafford still have favourable segments for Labour, the so called Urban progressives and those with young families, for example. So, it will retain a good portion of its vote. At the same time, those segments moving away from Labour are spreading themselves thinly across too many alternatives. There’s a sense that Labour are braced for a trap-door to open, but watching their opponents fight over the lever. I don’t know how it will pan out but my feeling is that the lever will be barely pulled.

Most of the postal votes are already in I think, so for many the election is over. But where was the debate, where was the challenge?

Elections are a time to scrutinise.

I want to celebrate Labour’s family hubs, the sure start centres of today, but I want the party to be challenged on whether they’re reaching every family that needs them.

We’ve seen a lot of road patching in the last couple of months, are we extracting value for money? Are the patches going to last? Are they sufficient quality? Other parties should give their alternative approaches.

Labour at least has a manifesto. I have not been able to find a manifesto from any of the other parties standing here in Lostock and Barton. Isn’t that appalling!

I want to know how other parties propose how to address Trafford’s continuing budget deficit. Trafford’s Conservatives have put together a video at least touching upon the issue, even if their identified waste had no connection to the budget.

Despite the absence of contesting programs, the one thing I will guarantee is that all parties that don’t lose all their seats, will see the election as ringing endorsement of every approach each party adopts for the next 12 months.

Lastly, despite my criticism of each and every party, the greatest culpability probably lies with ourselves. We don’t have to allow this state of affairs. We’ve never had greater ability to hold hustings and publicise them. We have allowed ourselves to be passive observers of an election when it’s our only chance to hold our borough’s leadership to account. It doesn’t have to be like this.

Prediction Votes

Most Votes across Trafford Labour Party
2nd Green Party
3rd Conservative Party
4th Reform Party
5th Liberal Democratic Party

I’m not going to predict seats. There’s some close ones, so it’ll be interesting nonetheless.

Photo by Tom Fisk from Pexels: https://www.pexels.com/photo/vehicles-racing-on-a-racetrack-12646461/

April 30, 2026
May 2026 Local Elections: Predictions for Trafford

Whose flagship will run aground?

Nominations have closed on the May 7th local elections. In the 21 wards of Trafford, we have five parties contesting every seat:

Party Candidates
Conservative 21
Greens 21
Labour 21
Lib Dems 21
Reform 21

The Reform breakaway party Advance, are contesting 6 seats. In addition there’s 2 independents and there is a lone Social Democratic Party candidate in Sale Central.

What’s going to happen when the votes are counted next day on May 8th?

Ben Walker is a respected pollster who came closest to predicting the last General Election result. He writes for the New Statesman and is founder of the Britain Elects aggregation site. He’s also a Labour Councillor in not so far off, Chester. I have a lot of time for Ben.

A Labour bloodbath across England? Won’t it be worse in Trafford?

If that’s the forecast for England, what on earth is it going to like in Trafford where we’ve been hit by one the worst government settlements in the country? We’ve had to put council tax up beyond the maximum allowed, we’ve had to borrow millions just to keep the town hall doors open. It’s surely got to be worse here?

Here’s my take.

I predict Labour will remain comfortably the largest party and will win the popular vote.

There will be no bloodbath here.

Yet, it could still be seminal in terms of the Tories vacating their position as contenders for power.

It’s often that the biggest factor is the quality of your opposition. Labour is extremely fortunate that the current Tories are contesting their right flank more than trying to win the centre ground.

Clearly, the presence of Reform and Advance are factors in this, but it’s got to be said there’s little evidence of the Tories wanting to widen their appeal. We’ll see, but this is Trafford, it was once their flagship.

Labour will be glad too, to have a Lib Dem party in Trafford that’s made itself into a single issue party focused entirely on Timperley.

The Greens may prove themselves to be the biggest threat, but it’s proved hard for them to get a foothold in the north of the borough. If they can take a seat in Old Trafford, they’ll be pleased with their progress, but only if they hold on to their Altrincham and Hale seats.

Reform managed to lose a seat this week to the Greens in a Kent by-election. The public are picking up that Reform can’t run councils. They’re struggling in Kent, they’re putting Council Tax up in Worcestershire by the largest amount in the country.

The real question will be as to whether a solid performance across the wards by Labour will be seen as a ringing endorsement of their programme. I would argue that you need to look at the total Labour vote, not just the seats.

2024 votes across Trafford

Labour 29,338 41.83%
Conservatives 17,645 25.16%
Green 12,643 18.03%
Lib Dem 7,983 11.38%
Reform 1,595 2.27%
Independents 842 1.20%
TUSC 88 0.13%
70,134

Can the Greens come second?

Reform only contested a handful of seats in 2024, so it’s inevitable their vote will grow. Could we see the Greens come second in the vote this time around? It would only require a 3.57% swing from the Conservatives. Given the disproportionate impact of Reform, I am going to stick my neck out and make that my prediction.

It’s possible Labour lose more votes, but it’s increasingly likely the Tories will suffer the bigger fall from grace.

April 11, 2026
Getting tetchy!

I read a really good piece in the Manchester Evening News by Hannah Richardson. It captured perfectly the mood of Trafford Council.

The Conservatives blamed Labour, Labour blamed the Conservatives, and the Greens pointed the finger at every other party present.
Hannah Richardson MEN

Manchester Evening News

We’re still waiting for the Government’s decision. It normally lands by the end of January, so everyone’s feeling a bit on edge.

Somerset Council has already had to postpone their budget meetings in the absence of the final settlement.

One can imagine that the team led by Nico Heslop (Director of Finance) at MHCLG has had its work cut out in listening to the protestations of councils like Trafford over the proposed settlement.

My guess is that we will learn our fate this week. It will be good to channel all this nervous energy into constructive activity.

The Conservatives as main opposition party will want to put an alternative budget forward. The other parties might want to propose tweaks. They clearly need to see the Labour budget first.

If the law dictates that it all has to be done and dusted by March 11, we really need that final settlement agreed.

Link to Manchester Evening News Article on the Council Meeting of 28 January 2026

January 31, 2026
Weekly Update

Quite a light week for meetings. Planning committee met on Thursday with a comparatively light agenda, but that was my only obligatory meeting.

We had our monthly advice surgery on the 5th. Since I won’t be standing for re-election next May (2026), potential replacements are proactively getting involved now, ahead of the selection process. I feel awkward. I want to separate myself from choosing a successor. Candidates to replace me had been invited to come along to the advice surgery. I didn’t know in advance. I was very uncomfortable. It’s an odd position to be in.

I hasten to underline that this is just for the Labour candidacy. I never take the voters for granted. The Labour candidate will be selected 31st May. I continue to be a Labour Councillor until 7th May 2026.

In terms of significant casework, I followed up on social media complaints about NHS lists at Revive Dental at Nags Head Circle. NHS patients had been informed they needed to sign up for private provision to remain on a dentist’s roll. We’re seeing this a lot throughout Trafford, but I’ve been asking questions of both Public Health and the Integrated Care Board (NHS).

I was pleased to see clearance of the bike lanes on Barton Dock Road together with some lovely planting of flowers on the verge.

That’s what I call a cycle lane!

They even watered the flowers the following week, so they’ve done a really good job.

Stretford Town Centre

I know the town centre is not Lostock and Barton Ward, but many residents here (including myself) consider themselves proud Stretfordians, and we’re passionately interested in how the regeneration of Stretford meets our needs.

The last vestiges of the Mall close at the end of August. Some businesses, such as Heron and Aldi retain their premises; others will have new premises in the new layout, and others will sadly depart.

I’m particularly sad to see Uplift go. It’s no exaggeration to say that the Uplift café has personified the spirit of Stretford since before Covid. They’ve kept going, they’ve delivered art, craft, music and energy to the community when it’s been most needed.

If you’ve not been following the co-owner Georgie’s video’d walks to work each Saturday on Facebook, you really should dip in and watch a few while they’re online.

The Uplift Collection

Frustratingly, we still don’t have a firm grasp of the grand design for Stretford. We have themes of longer hours and an increase in the night-time economy. There’s an aspiration for independent retail, but at the same time, there’s an expectation of corporate uniformity in terms of operating hours. I know there’s a tension there for some smaller operators who are being asked to commit to the project.

Hopefully, we’ll hear exciting news soon about who’s coming. I think those existing traders need to hear it too.

There’s been good news that Stretford Beach has won an award. It needs café seating and trade, but I like how it might evolve.

April 14, 2025
This is not the way to do it! (welfare reform)

Reform is needed. The number of people on benefits due to ill health has increased exponentially. Long waiting times within the NHS are contributing to this, but they aren’t the whole story.

The government has clearly determined that financial incentives to be ‘on the sick’ rather than unemployed contribute to this. If this was all they were looking at, I think there would be room for useful reform, but only at the edges.

The government has instead chosen a stark change to Personal Independence Payments. Applicants will need to achieve a single 4-point score in the daily living assessments.

Daily Living Activities

The Resolution Foundation think tank said the tightening of PIP eligibility would mean between 800,000 and 1.2 million people losing support of between £4,200 and £6,300 per year by the end of the decade. That’s a big change. My colleague, Cllr James Wright has pointed out that Pip often enables work rather than compensating the lack of it.

James is a passionate Wolves fan*.

I am worried that Rachel Reeves is relying on the wrong advisers. There are welfare changes that would make sense, bringing prescription charges in line with state pension age, for example. She seems to have bought into the line that we can solve the economy by removing welfare rather than reforming work, which is what is really needed.

Rachel would benefit from listening to Sean Farrington of the BBC. His radio programme ‘Payslip Britain’ highlights the extent to which work and lack of control within it is damaging our wellbeing. Nine million people not in work and not looking for work is a mindblowing figure. I remember the UK reaching a million unemployed in the seventies. It was considered a seismic change. If work is negatively affecting our well-being, I’m not sure that being cruel to disabled people is going to motivate people back into work.

Sean Farrington is a passionate Wolves Fan*

Listen to Payslip Britain

For the avoidance of doubt, were I to be given a vote, I would vote against the changes to PIP.

*I only mention the Wolves allegiances, so that both could be reassured that they weren’t alone in this world or Manchester. 😊But this radio programme is a must listen!

April 1, 2025
Trust me, I’m a politician. How can we regain the trust we’ve lost?
I picked up Anthony Seldon’s book at Stretford library. It was published just as the MPs’ expenses scandal was peaking so perhaps a little out of date, but it got me interested in the latest figures which are summarised below:
- 35% of the UK population stated that they trusted the national government, which is lower than the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) average (41%).
- 42% of the population reported that they trusted local government and 55% trusted the Civil Service.
- Trust in public services was higher than trust in the national or local governments, with the NHS the most trusted public service (80%), followed by the courts and legal system (68%).
- 75% of the population believed that the UK government should place a higher priority on creating conditions for businesses to thrive, 64% said they should place higher priority on reducing climate change and 54% believe they should place higher priority on reducing the national debt.
Office of National Statistics – Trust in Government 2022

So, only 35% trust the national government and 42% trust their local council. I’ve seen some commentators conclude this is a plus for local government. I’m not so sure. By definition, councils are in your neighbourhood. A high proportion of a council’s services are universal; and even if we’re not receiving a particular service, it’s likely we know someone who is. Yet, 58% don’t trust their local council. I think that’s pretty bad.

It would be interesting to see how much councils trust their residents. Trust is generally seen to be a two-way process. If councils don’t trust their residents, it would perhaps give us a clue as to why trust has broken down.

It seems pretty obvious that neither the leadership of the Conservative Party nor of the Labour Party trusts their own members. As a constitutionally defined democratic socialist party that’s a bit of a problem for the Labour Party and one that we’ll have to tackle.

I think this breakdown in trust is dangerous. Other countries have not deteriorated to the extent that the UK has. We saw what happened with Brexit and more than anything, that had to be about trust.

Clearly, I have my own ideas, but firstly, I think we should be asking you. What needs to happen to restore trust in our democratic institutions?

I look forward to hearing from you
August 10, 2023