Canal27ways

Category: Labour Party

  • May 2026 Local Elections: Predictions for Trafford

    May 2026 Local Elections: Predictions for Trafford

    Whose flagship will run aground?

    Nominations have closed on the May 7th local elections. In the 21 wards of Trafford, we have five parties contesting every seat:

    PartyCandidates
    Conservative21
    Greens21
    Labour21
    Lib Dems21
    Reform21

    The Reform breakaway party Advance, are contesting 6 seats. In addition there’s 2 independents and there is a lone Social Democratic Party candidate in Sale Central.

    What’s going to happen on May 8th?

    Ben Walker is a respected pollster who came closest to predicting the last General Election result. He writes for the New Statesman and is founder of the Britain Elects aggregation site. He’s also a Labour Councillor in not so far off, Chester. I have a lot of time for Ben.

    A Labour bloodbath across England? Won’t it be worse in Trafford?

    If that’s the forecast for England, what on earth is it going to like in Trafford where we’ve been hit by one the worst government settlements in the country? We’ve had to put council tax up beyond the maximum allowed, we’ve had to borrow millions just to keep the town hall doors open. It’s surely got to be worse here?

    Here’s my take.

    I predict Labour will remain comfortably the largest party and will win the popular vote.

    There will be no bloodbath here.

    Yet, it could still be seminal in terms of the Tories vacating their position as contenders for power.

    It’s often that the biggest factor is the quality of your opposition. Labour is extremely fortunate that the current Tories are contesting their right flank more than trying to win the centre ground.

    Clearly, the presence of Reform and Advance are factors in this, but it’s got to be said there’s little evidence of the Tories wanting to widen their appeal. We’ll see, but this is Trafford, it was once their flagship.

    Labour will be glad too, to have a Lib Dem party in Trafford that’s made itself into a single issue party focused entirely on Timperley.

    The Greens may prove themselves to be the biggest threat, but it’s proved hard for them to get a foothold in the north of the borough. If they can take a seat in Old Trafford, they’ll be pleased with their progress, but only if they hold on to their Altrincham and Hale seats.

    Reform managed to lose a seat this week to the Greens in a Kent by-election. The public are picking up that Reform can’t run councils. They’re struggling in Kent, they’re putting Council Tax up in Worcestershire by the largest amount in the country.

    The real question will be as to whether a solid performance across the wards by Labour will be seen as a ringing endorsement of their programme. I would argue that you need to look at the total Labour vote, not just the seats.

    2024 votes across Trafford

    Labour29,33841.83%
    Conservatives17,64525.16%
    Green12,64318.03%
    Lib Dem7,98311.38%
    Reform1,5952.27%
    Independents8421.20%
    TUSC880.13%
    70,134

    Can the Greens come second?

    Reform only contested a handful of seats in 2024, so it’s inevitable their vote will grow. Could we see the Greens come second in the vote this time around? It would only require a 3.57% swing from the Conservatives. Given the disproportionate impact of Reform, I am going to stick my neck out and make that my prediction.

    It’s possible Labour lose more votes, but it’s increasingly likely the Tories will suffer the bigger fall from grace.

  • Getting tetchy!

    Getting tetchy!

    I read a really good piece in the Manchester Evening News by Hannah Richardson. It captured perfectly the mood of Trafford Council.

    The Conservatives blamed Labour, Labour blamed the Conservatives, and the Greens pointed the finger at every other party present.

    Hannah Richardson MEN
    Manchester Evening News

    We’re still waiting for the Government’s decision. It normally lands by the end of January, so everyone’s feeling a bit on edge.

    Somerset Council has already had to postpone their budget meetings in the absence of the final settlement.

    One can imagine that the team led by Nico Heslop (Director of Finance) at MHCLG has had its work cut out in listening to the protestations of councils like Trafford over the proposed settlement.

    My guess is that we will learn our fate this week. It will be good to channel all this nervous energy into constructive activity.

    The Conservatives as main opposition party will want to put an alternative budget forward. The other parties might want to propose tweaks. They clearly need to see the Labour budget first.

    If the law dictates that it all has to be done and dusted by March 11, we really need that final settlement agreed.

    Link to Manchester Evening News Article on the Council Meeting of 28 January 2026

  • Weekly Update

    Weekly Update

    Quite a light week for meetings. Planning committee met on Thursday with a comparatively light agenda, but that was my only obligatory meeting.

    We had our monthly advice surgery on the 5th. Since I won’t be standing for re-election next May (2026), potential replacements are proactively getting involved now, ahead of the selection process. I feel awkward. I want to separate myself from choosing a successor. Candidates to replace me had been invited to come along to the advice surgery. I didn’t know in advance. I was very uncomfortable. It’s an odd position to be in.

    I hasten to underline that this is just for the Labour candidacy. I never take the voters for granted. The Labour candidate will be selected 31st May. I continue to be a Labour Councillor until 7th May 2026.

    In terms of significant casework, I followed up on social media complaints about NHS lists at Revive Dental at Nags Head Circle. NHS patients had been informed they needed to sign up for private provision to remain on a dentist’s roll. We’re seeing this a lot throughout Trafford, but I’ve been asking questions of both Public Health and the Integrated Care Board (NHS).

    I was pleased to see clearance of the bike lanes on Barton Dock Road together with some lovely planting of flowers on the verge.

    That’s what I call a cycle lane!

    They even watered the flowers the following week, so they’ve done a really good job.

    Stretford Town Centre

    I know the town centre is not Lostock and Barton Ward, but many residents here (including myself) consider themselves proud Stretfordians, and we’re passionately interested in how the regeneration of Stretford meets our needs.

    The last vestiges of the Mall close at the end of August. Some businesses, such as Heron and Aldi retain their premises; others will have new premises in the new layout, and others will sadly depart.

    I’m particularly sad to see Uplift go. It’s no exaggeration to say that the Uplift café has personified the spirit of Stretford since before Covid. They’ve kept going, they’ve delivered art, craft, music and energy to the community when it’s been most needed.

    If you’ve not been following the co-owner Georgie’s video’d walks to work each Saturday on Facebook, you really should dip in and watch a few while they’re online.

    The Uplift Collection

    Frustratingly, we still don’t have a firm grasp of the grand design for Stretford. We have themes of longer hours and an increase in the night-time economy. There’s an aspiration for independent retail, but at the same time, there’s an expectation of corporate uniformity in terms of operating hours. I know there’s a tension there for some smaller operators who are being asked to commit to the project.

    Hopefully, we’ll hear exciting news soon about who’s coming. I think those existing traders need to hear it too.

    There’s been good news that Stretford Beach has won an award. It needs café seating and trade, but I like how it might evolve.

  • This is not the way to do it! (welfare reform)

    Reform is needed. The number of people on benefits due to ill health has increased exponentially. Long waiting times within the NHS are contributing to this, but they aren’t the whole story.

    The government has clearly determined that financial incentives to be ‘on the sick’ rather than unemployed contribute to this. If this was all they were looking at, I think there would be room for useful reform, but only at the edges.

    The government has instead chosen a stark change to Personal Independence Payments. Applicants will need to achieve a single 4-point score in the daily living assessments.

    Daily Living Activities

    The Resolution Foundation think tank said the tightening of PIP eligibility would mean between 800,000 and 1.2 million people losing support of between £4,200 and £6,300 per year by the end of the decade. That’s a big change. My colleague, Cllr James Wright has pointed out that Pip often enables work rather than compensating the lack of it.

    James is a passionate Wolves fan*.

    I am worried that Rachel Reeves is relying on the wrong advisers. There are welfare changes that would make sense, bringing prescription charges in line with state pension age, for example. She seems to have bought into the line that we can solve the economy by removing welfare rather than reforming work, which is what is really needed.

    Rachel would benefit from listening to Sean Farrington of the BBC. His radio programme ‘Payslip Britain’ highlights the extent to which work and lack of control within it is damaging our wellbeing. Nine million people not in work and not looking for work is a mindblowing figure. I remember the UK reaching a million unemployed in the seventies. It was considered a seismic change. If work is negatively affecting our well-being, I’m not sure that being cruel to disabled people is going to motivate people back into work.

    Sean Farrington is a passionate Wolves Fan*

    Listen to Payslip Britain

    For the avoidance of doubt, were I to be given a vote, I would vote against the changes to PIP.

    *I only mention the Wolves allegiances, so that both could be reassured that they weren’t alone in this world or Manchester. 😊But this radio programme is a must listen!

  • Trust me, I’m a politician. How can we regain the trust we’ve lost?

    Trust me, I’m a politician. How can we regain the trust we’ve lost?

    I picked up Anthony Seldon’s book at Stretford library. It was published just as the MPs’ expenses scandal was peaking so perhaps a little out of date, but it got me interested in the latest figures which are summarised below:

    • 35% of the UK population stated that they trusted the national government, which is lower than the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) average (41%).
    • 42% of the population reported that they trusted local government and 55% trusted the Civil Service.
    • Trust in public services was higher than trust in the national or local governments, with the NHS the most trusted public service (80%), followed by the courts and legal system (68%).
    • 75% of the population believed that the UK government should place a higher priority on creating conditions for businesses to thrive, 64% said they should place higher priority on reducing climate change and 54% believe they should place higher priority on reducing the national debt.

    Office of National Statistics – Trust in Government 2022

    So, only 35% trust the national government and 42% trust their local council. I’ve seen some commentators conclude this is a plus for local government. I’m not so sure. By definition, councils are in your neighbourhood. A high proportion of a council’s services are universal; and even if we’re not receiving a particular service, it’s likely we know someone who is. Yet, 58% don’t trust their local council. I think that’s pretty bad.

    It would be interesting to see how much councils trust their residents. Trust is generally seen to be a two-way process. If councils don’t trust their residents, it would perhaps give us a clue as to why trust has broken down.

    It seems pretty obvious that neither the leadership of the Conservative Party nor of the Labour Party trusts their own members. As a constitutionally defined democratic socialist party that’s a bit of a problem for the Labour Party and one that we’ll have to tackle.

    I think this breakdown in trust is dangerous. Other countries have not deteriorated to the extent that the UK has. We saw what happened with Brexit and more than anything, that had to be about trust.

    Clearly, I have my own ideas, but firstly, I think we should be asking you. What needs to happen to restore trust in our democratic institutions?

    I look forward to hearing from you

  • Committees may not be a good way to design a car, but they’re the way to make sure the city ticks

    There have still been a few meetings happening as we enter the summer break. Whilst I haven’t attended all in person, the importance of the subject matter has made it imperative to read the reports and catch the video streams. Committees are hard work and you still get the occasional member who can never reach a full stop, but there’s been so much else to take on board.

    Executive
    Greater Manchester Scrutiny
    Trafford’s Health Scrutiny
    Datalab update
    National Policy Forum

    Executive

    Although I’m not a member of the Council’s Executive, primarily it’s their decisions upon which I’ll be judged when it comes to being re-elected. I like to follow what they’re up to.

    Items on the agenda included:

    A new Culture Strategy for Trafford.

    The culture strategy document is available here. I like that the emphasis is as much on bringing on new talent as putting on shows. My own feeling is that Greater Manchester has improved its arts output hugely since Salford fought off the City of Manchester in winning the BBC to Media City, but Manchester still dwarfs everyone else combined. The fact that Oldham Colosseum closed shows how tough it is. I think I’d like to see a Greater Manchester approach and Trafford feeding into that with its strategy but not competing.

    Tennis Investment Project

    This involves a charging policy and the procurement of a specialist operator for the tennis courts the council owns such as at Davyhulme Park and Victoria Park. Initially, it will be trialled and I don’t think they’ve announced yet where the trials will be.

    Active Travel Reprioritisation

    The battle of the A56 cones has almost become a defining cultural phenomenon. However, it looks as though Trafford has received the go-ahead to move forward with a designed scheme that would make permanent arrangements. From the funding point of view, this means including it within the Mayor of Greater Manchester’s Challenge Fund Budget. (The Dept of Transport originally funded the cones as an emergency measure during Covid)

    Sadly, we do not get junction improvements to the Barton Road gyratory and active cyclists heading towards Altrincham will still be deposited into the fast lane of the A56. The approach to design has been to leave the junction in place, but weave a cycle and walking route on and through the central island. It’s a problem because it involves so many crossings which will delay the active traveller.

    Trafford is bidding for £1.6m for the whole scheme to provide permanent segregation from Talbot Road to the M60 including the gyratory weave and crossings. A lot of active travellers have already pointed out that the M60 is not where they usually choose to end their journey and that is a problem, at a minimum their heading to Dane Road.

    My conclusion on the A56: So the A56 scheme is not perfect; far from it. Despite this, I am still supportive of the bid. The cones have been so divisive and have brought out the worst in people. We need to move on.

    Additional Schemes

    The two Talbot Road junctions with Chester Road and with Greatstone Road have already received full business case approval and they’re particularly anticipated with a degree of eagerness. I’ve been pursuing Greatstone Road junction improvements for pedestrians for a number of years so there’s a degree of fulfilment attached to that.

    Pipeline Scheme – Davyhulme Active neighbourhood (technically route D). I really need to publicise this more. I am yet to be convinced it’s a worthwhile scheme. They’re hoping to have the business case submitted by January 2024. Essentially, it’s five low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTN)s. We know Rishi Sunak does not like LTNs, but they can be worthwhile – most of Stretford around Victoria Park is essentially a low-traffic neighbourhood, they’ve cut off exits onto Chester Road or Kingsway. My initial reaction to the Davyhulme scheme is that it condenses the traffic onto residential streets rather than main roads and that’s a problem.

    Greater Manchester Scrutiny Committee

    Again, I’m not a member, but in this case, I am a substitute member. Items discussed included.

    Topics included:

    • National Waste Strategy – essentially balancing the need to recycle more with the practicalities of fine-sorting the waste. The government are shifting their position
      Trafford’s Leader, Cllr Tom Ross gave a really top-notch presentation that’s worth watching on the GMCA site
    • Bus Fare Initiatives including capped fares. Funding is in place for 24/25. The introduction has led to an increase of 12% in patronage so GMCA is keen on continuation. To review it again next summer. Franchising will have a positive behavioural effect. In fact, franchising is so exciting in that it opens up so many possibilities. The tragedy would be if funding was pulled from 2025.

    Trafford Health Scrutiny

    Another packed meeting. Items included:

    Adaptations Team and Occupational Therapy Update – This is a major contributor to quality of life and hospital discharges. The team has a serious backlog that can be traced back to Covid. Scrutiny was looking at the action plan to alleviate the delays.

    Hospital Discharge – A broader look at resilient discharge – making sure that patients leaving hospital have the support needed to sustain themselves.

    Integrated Care System Update – This is yet another reorganisation; in this case to replace the Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG). Although it sounds dry, this is a vital element of health provision. The Greater Manchester model is proving itself in terms of life expectancy. The journey to transform health care though is only just beginning and building a system that integrates both care and health provision requires organisational change. There’s a huge amount of work going on behind the scenes. It’s vital that scrutiny monitors this change but it’s quite a significant task.

    Trafford Datalab Presentation

    This was presented last week as part of my induction on returning to the council, but I don’t need any persuasion. I love the work they do and their output is generally open data. I just want to highlight one particular page – the census data. It’s a cornucopia of intelligence but vital in targeting and championing resources.

    Labour’s National Policy Forum

    Gender recognition law has been a divisive subject in the Labour Party and elsewhere, but particularly in the Labour Party.

    I wanted to briefly state that I believe the position taken at the National Policy Forum at the weekend seems to me to be just about right. I know that others will disagree but I back Anneliese Dodds:

    We need to recognise that sex and gender are different – as the Equality Act does. We will make sure that nothing in our modernised gender recognition process would override the single-sex exemptions in the Equality Act. Put simply, this means that there will always be places where it is reasonable for biological women only to have access. Labour will defend those spaces, providing legal clarity for the providers of single-sex services.

    Anneliese Dodds – Labour Shadow Secretary of State, Women and Equalities – Guardian 24 July 2023