We’re waiting for the draft budget to be published which is scheduled as it stands for the 6th January 2026 as part of the reports for the Executive on 14th January 2026.
I’d be surprised if the Government issued anything further in the meantime. Although, you’d anticipate a lot of one to one communication with Councils negatively affected by the settlement proposals. Trafford is certainly looking to discuss.
Despite there being little to report, I do think the data published by the Government each year on council tax changes is worth a glance, particularly as Alison McGovern seemed to put some stall on average council tax.
The table below compares the rates paid in Trafford to the average in England* and to Stockport. The year 25/26 is the first time that Trafford has closed the gap by even the most marginal amount.
*not totally sure I’m comparing like for like on the average table as both county councils and mayors are not universal. As Stockport is a GM council, there’s much more assurance in the comparison.
Trafford still has a low council tax regime. Over the decades this meant Trafford denying itself millions year on year. Some might argue that this is due to Trafford having a tight political competition for control, but if anything, the competition in Stockport has been even more fierce. So, it is what it is, but isn’t allowing sudden changes in income to be cushioned against.
It’s my intention that this post is the first in a series of pieces on setting Trafford’s 26/27 budget. One of the main motives for writing it is to get my own understanding of it up to speed. They say that the best form of learning is getting to a position where I can explain it. You’ll have gathered that I am not yet at that point.
So, a starting gun was fired on Wednesday 17th December 2025 with the Government’s publication of a library of documents and a statement to the House of Commons from Alison McGovern, Minister of State (Housing, Communities and Local Government).
It takes just 90 seconds for the Minister to get to a key theme of this Labour Government’s approach to financing local government.
By breaking the link between funding and deprivation, the Tories punished poorer councils. Year after year, they exacerbated inequality. As a result, too many places in this country feel forgotten and left to fend for themselves…
…It is why, according to our analysis, whereas under the old system deprivation scores could account for only 25% of variation in per capita funding applications, under this settlement it is up to 75%, with other important factors such as coastline, miles of road or visitor numbers making up the rest.
So, we know that poorer councils will do better from this settlement than others and Trafford is not one of the poorest. As a Labour man, I totally support the intent. We will need to see whether Trafford is getting sufficient funding. That’s a process that will take us right through to setting the budget in March.
Resources
I’ll add to these as we proceed with budget setting but there’s already vital material online.
Government Publications (Ministry of Housing, Community and Local Government – MHCLG)
Trafford awaits its provisional financial settlement
Might even be today, but more likely tomorrow or Thursday.
This is the week where councils learn the amount that central government is going to top up their funding.
We know the general rules that are going to apply. We know that the Government wants to support councils with high levels of deprivation.
Last year Trafford had to apply for exceptional financial support which allowed the council to increase council tax beyond the normal capping of 4.99% and it provided the ability to borrow up to £9.6m to support the council’s in year budget.
The council are currently anticipating a modest underspend of about £0.5m on this year’s budget. That would allow either reducing that £9.6m capitalisation for the year; or a small boost to the reserves.
If it’s feasible, I’d prefer supplementing the reserves. In my view, they’re far too low.
A favourable settlement from government will help narrow the funding gap. If it’s unfavourable, it presents some difficult choices.
The Institute for Financial Studies (IFS) put out some analysis of the government’s budget approach for local government last month and it’s hard to see Trafford being one of the winners. Most of the policy shifts seem to work against Trafford, so it’s definitely a worrying wait but we’ll see.
I’m a member of the Council of Governors for Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust (MFT). We met last week for our December development day. The intention was to provide an overview of various strategies and programmes. The health landscape is rapidly changing in Greater Manchester.
One of the key elements of the model is the locality neighbourhood. The axiom behind the model is that we can best improve health outcomes through provision in the community rather through an an over-reliance on hospitals. The locality neighbourhood aims to provide the pathways within the community that enable this to happen.
We’re in the middle of winter pressures that have come early this year. Already, initiatives like the new Single Point of Access clinical triage hub (known as the SPoA) are making a difference. The SPoA has been up and running since mid-November, directing patients who would have likely been conveyed by ambulance, away from our Emergency Departments (ED) and to a more appropriate setting or service which better meets their needs. In the first two weeks, 50-60% of patients referred to the service have been diverted. We expect to see the volume of referrals increase as there is greater awareness of this new option to GPs and the ambulance service. Clearly, initiatives like this emphasise the importance of our community provision.
It would be remiss not to link to the nhs advice on knowing where to go and what to do in terms of health provision at this time of the year.
Our mission
More generally, we looked at MFT priorities and how we were peforming against the targets for the current year as well as looking forward to the coming year.
I think what I take from this work is how much depends on the Trafford provision. We’re not yet where Manchester is with Hospital at Home and district nursing. That has to be a priority and I know it is.
Treasury Management Report (A quietly well-performing aspect of the Council. Regardless of political complexion, this team is tasked with managing both our debts and financial assets)
I did as I was told. I kept my mouth shut as instructed. I voted as whipped.
Ultimately, it was a mix of posturing and moral scolding. The more we are removed from the neighbourhoods we represent, the more we inhabit an alternate universe. Nobody wins and you won’t hear of these motions again. It’s just hierarchies reinforcing themselves. The people sat on the council dais win. That is all.
We’ve got to find new ways of highlighting serious issues.
Council Finances
The period from October to December is typically the time when the next year’s budget comes together. Assumptions are made about the Government’s settlement and other unknowns such as pay settlements.
I notice my old friend, former Councillor Jonathan Coupe, has been raising the absence of a draft budget.
Screenshot
I was scheduled to be a member of a scrutiny committee from late summer. It never met and meetings scheduled for December have now been cancelled. Jonathan is right to question where we are.
I think this tells you how much depends on the final Local Government Settlement. We are never given the actual date, but it was the 18th December, which triggered our application for Exceptional Financial Support from the Government in 2024. Given that £9.6m of that financial support was not consolidated, but was actually a borrowing facility that will have to be paid back over time, I would have preferred a worst case budget for 2026/27. I hope the Government understands the financial precipice I suspect we’re standing over.
The monitoring report for the current year is to be presented at tonight’s executive. It looks like we’re on course to spend that £9.6m capitalisation. All things being equal, that would leave us needing to make up that £9.6m just to stand still without any increases in costs.
The government has recently published its fair funding review. We won’t know the full impact until the settlement is published, but prioritising support for the most deprived councils won’t necessarily help Trafford.
Executive Meeting 8th December
Apart from the current in-year budget position there’s a couple of other items on the agenda;
Potential compulsory purchase New Street Altrincham – L&Q have a development there.
Memorandum of Understanding with L&Q on future working collaboration
I would have preferred this memorandum of understanding to have undergone pre-decision scrutiny. Were L&Q working collaboratively when they emptied Circle Court?
Activation of Trafford’s Cultural Strategy – go ahead for Trafford Is… platform
Urmston Plan – all councils do this type of thing and you’re left feeling wouldn’t it have been better to just do some implementation. We knew that the Urmston Market site was frustrating residents. Has this ‘plan’ brought about any resolution?
Advanced Manufacturing Skills Programme – our contribution to a GM wide programme.
Planning Committee applications
None within the ward, but Stretford Town Centre is important to many of our residents. This will be heard on Thursday evening.
Lacy Street – Residential development (use class C3) of 53 dwellings with associated amenity space, access, car and cycle parking, external landscaping, drainage and other associated works.
The recommendation is for members of the committee to grant this application from Trafford Council. I’m on record as opposing it as an unsuitable use of this prime location.
It’s hard to imagine a less walking/cycling friendly junction. Just as the Urmston plan is advocating raised crossings, Stretford proposes fast corners to the junctions in the centre of Stretford. Front doors and gardens onto Chester Road are brave at best.
Following one of the worst council meetings I can remember and there’s been some bad ones, it was nice to confirm I’ve got tickets for Neil Young / Elvis Costello in the summer.
Music is important to me. I’m still searching for a radio feed that gives me a perfect mix and no talk. BBC 6 music is closest in my tastes, but they hardly ever shut up.
……and the same goes for council! – 😊
I sometimes listen to Radio Paradise from the states. And I’ve been playing Fip Monde from France for (+15) years since it was featured on the Today programme – it’s world music and it’s rare to hear anything I’ve heard before. Still more often than not I just ask Alexa to play a particular song and let the algorithm take over.
Regardless of this December is the time for the music streamers to tell listeners what they’ve been listening to the most and I can never resist checking it.
This is mine. I’d love hear yours. I don’t know how accessible they are if you’re not signed up. I know I can still play somethings on Spotify despite not being with them for a long time.
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