Canal27ways

Category: Weekly Updates

  • Wake up, forget JCBs and defend Trafford’s services!

    Wake up, forget JCBs and defend Trafford’s services!

    Trying to give a flavour of what’s been happening.

    I’ve already written one piece on Trafford’s finances, so I want to report on some other things that have been going on, but for a councillor, the February budget-setting meeting is probably the most important on the calendar. It didn’t feel like that last week and the headline references the lack of focus coming from the other parties

    I also want to mention some of the more interesting things that have been happening locally. The story that everyone’s had an opinion on is the Stretford sun loungers, but I also want to celebrate Lostock Park’s outdoor gym because I’ve been using it.

    Davyhulme Active Neighbourhood

    CANCELLED

    The Davyhulme Park scheme was part of the Urmston Active Neighbourhood, a project that aims to develop a safe and attractive walking and cycling network for the Urmston area. The wider project is community-led and is being developed by One Trafford Partnership. The project aims to encourage people to make walking and cycling a natural choice for shorter journeys, which will improve their health and the air quality in the area.

    The Davyhulme scheme would have seen heavy planters like those above installed on several roads in the area to prevent through traffic between Lostock Circle and Urmston Town Centre. The problem was that the road closures imposed more problems on the people living in the area than on through traffic. The community fed back on the plans to this effect and the Davyhulme Scheme is now cancelled and won’t be revived.

    Lostock Park

    Rowing machine Lostock
    Instructions for hiptwister
    Hiptwister

    The park already boasts the best skateboard facility in Trafford, but they’re by no means finished.

    Lostock Park’s newly installed outdoor gym is breathtaking. Without doubt it is the best outdoor gym in the north of Trafford and probably for many miles around. The winter rain has made it a little squelchy in one patch but hopefully, once the grass re-establishes itself that will sort itself.

    It’s been ideal for me. After having my heart attack at the end of September, I’m trying to boost my fitness. I’m doing cardiac rehab at the George Carnall centre on a Thursday which is great, but I need a daily exercise. I have never been to an indoor gym and to be honest, it doesn’t appeal, but I do like these outdoor machines. The instructions are on the machines and I think I’m using them effectively. Today was my third consecutive day there and I believe they call it a burn, but I’m definitely feeling it.

    The Friends of Lostock Park have once again excelled at getting investment in without fuss and making a real difference. Given so much they have delivered is health and fitness orientated, they’re really making a difference.

    Trafford’s Budget

    Budget Council took place last week (21st February). This key date on the council calendar always generates much excitement. Over the years the chamber has seemed to fizz, spark and crackle with fierce rival parties throwing verbal grenades about the opening hours of a library or some other highly contentious policy choice from the ruling group of the day.

    This year turned out rather dull despite the extreme gravity of the council’s current financial position. The three opposition parties each proposed amendments to the budget proposals.

    • The Conservatives proposed using latest JCB equipment on potholes
    • The Lib Dems proposed free car parking in Timperley.
    • The Green Party proposed using number plate recognition technology to identify parents taking their children to school in a car.

    I can see a degree of merit in all the opposition proposals. We do need more innovation from Amey, car park charges shouldn’t undermine trade in Timperley – (we can keep an eye on it). Finally, we do need to encourage walking to school but I worry about the surveillance culture.

    However, the real problem with these budget amendments is that they don’t address the precipitous financial predicament we’re in. We’re using £5.6m of reserves to plug the gap in this coming financial year. The rise in council tax brings in £3.6m plus £2.4m for the social care element. That £5.6m from reserves is going to leave a hole we’ll have to fill next year before we even think of trying to keep up with rising costs. Even increasing council tax next year will just about cover the £5.6m. But at the same time, we have a Designated School Grant (DSG) time-bomb that’s currently cushioned by a ‘statutory override’ – essentially an instruction from the government not to make it active in the accounts until March 2026 when it won’t be this government’s problem.

    The budget report section on the statutory override says at 1.5.12

    “However, the statutory override is only in place to 31 March 2026. At this point, if there is no further extension, Trafford’s accumulated DSG deficit has potential to be greater than the Council’s total reserves in which case it would be technically insolvent and mean a S114 would be required.”

    Paragraph 1.5.12 in Trafford’s budget report

    I used a picture of Mr Micawber to illustrate a blog piece on the council finances. I honestly don’t know if something will indeed turn up. Our saving grace is that we’re not alone, but it felt like if we all pretended that everything will turn out right, then it probably would.

    Circle Court

    The block is closing. It’s a mammoth task to find appropriate new homes for over 100 tenancies. A lot of progress has been made and we’ve worked with L&Q along this path. Hopefully, we’ll have it all done ahead of time. I think they’ve made some real progress. We’ve been very impressed with the work that Kerry and the other officers have put into this and many residents are already fixed up.

    Circle Court

    Stretford Sun Loungers

    The work to transform what used to be Stretford Arndale/Mall continues as does the reshaping of Kingsway.

    It’s fair to say the new stylised seating has been a talking point. The Daily Mail has taken a pop at us for installing “Benidorm-style sun loungers. It was a bit of a shock to see them. Despite representing a part of Stretford that is key that is key to its vibrancy, infuriatingly Lostock and Barton councillors don’t get consulted on our town centre. Nevertheless, I like them and I want more.

    Seating is a vital part of bringing our streets back to life. Places to sit and talk are a vital part of a liveable town. It doesn’t rain all the time. A few years back TfGM were removing seats from bus shelters. Seats were seen as a problem. Seats are never the problem, it’s the lack of facilities for young people that is the problem. Seats that allow conversations are always a good thing.

    I don’t know whether the transformation of the mall will work. Even if the Mall regeneration eventually fails I’d still be supportive of the provision of seating. I know my friends at my physio class were laughing at those sun beds. The interesting thing about that conversation was they were all sat down laughing at it. Conversations are better sat down and I’ve seen more smiles on Kingsway this week than I have done in a long time.

    General Casework Roundup

    I’ve had a variety of casework recently.

    • Dog Poo in path between Ely Ave and Barton Road. This is a particular blight on a daily schedule. It’s clearly a big dog and no attempt to clear the mess is taking place. (ongoing)
    • Rehousing issue (currently dormant whilst other solutions explored)
    • Hedging Issue (ongoing)
    • A number of drainage issues in roads (ongoing)

    They will be missed

    We have lost two veteran champions for the area. Ann Day and Tony Lloyd will be hugely missed.

    Ann, John in the background and myself at Lostock Library

    Ann was chair of Lostock High School, chair of Trafford health watch and championed local communities throughout her life. She was generous and always working. A huge loss to this area and her lovely family.

    I will miss Ann terribly.

    Tony Lloyd was our MP when I first joined the Labour Party. He was a Labour man in the true sense of the word. The tributes from all corners of political life say everything that needs to be said about him.

  • Mission – To achieve a state of Happiness in Council Finances

    Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure nineteen, nineteen and six, result happiness. 

    Annual income twenty pounds, annual expenditure twenty pounds and six, result misery.

    Mr Micawber’s Principle from David Copperfield by Charles Dickens

    Mr Micawber’s rules for personal finance are still cited. They rather disregard mortgages and credit, but they still have some worth. The one area in which the rule still pertains with absolute adherence is in local government finance.

    The work on the Trafford Council budget is usually largely decided upon by this time of the year. It’s never been an easy task, but we would normally have made our choices and be ready to prepare for the February Budget Meeting of Council. Our choices this year are awful and they’re getting worse.

    It’s not just in Trafford either. Strange words and numerals, ‘section 114’ have started to be heard regularly in news bulletins usually accompanied by the more familiar phrases, “council” and “bankruptcy”.

    A Section 114 notice is not bankruptcy as a normal business would see it, but no one wants the commissioners in!

    In the context of how private businesses manage their accounts, the circumstances of a council having to issue a Section 114 notice bear no resemblance to that of a business facing bankruptcy. It’s just one year where the council’s expenditure is forecast to exceed its projected income. For the chief officer of a council though it’s just about as bad as it can get!

    Trafford needs to get itself into a position where it has sufficient income to cover the statutory functions it is obliged to provide in 2024/2025. It will have to do so either by increasing its income or by reducing that expenditure.

    Sources of Council Income

    Council Tax is the main source of income. Trafford has traditionally kept council low. Since 2010, the council’s ability to increase its council tax has been limited with a period of effective freeze followed by percentage caps on increases. As a consequence, if anything, Trafford has fallen further behind.

    Nevertheless, despite the capping of council tax, the degree to which Trafford relies on Council Tax has increased. In 2008 council tax made up 55% of our income, this year it makes up 58% of our income. The Government has decreed extra responsibilities such as Public Health, but accompanied by lower levels of central funding.

    Line graph comparing Trafford's Council Tax with England and GM average

    Decline in Central Funding

    Fees and Charges

    Sales, Fees, Charges and Rents brought in £46m this year and I’m sure there’s an expectation to bring in more next year. The sale of council properties and assets is an exhaustive process. It can be counterproductive and increasing fees and charges beyond what the public will tolerate is a fool’s errand.

    Undoubtedly, there’ll be some increases. For instance, I don’t have any explanation as to why we don’t charge for Sunday parking but it wouldn’t bring in huge amounts.

    So, Council Tax has to go up again from April!

    Our Income

    We know that council tax will rise is schedule to rise by 4.99% including 2% dedicated to social care. On top of our council tax income, we’re granted various amounts from Government as well as Business Rates. By December our total funded spending was scheduled to be £212m.

    The Government describes this figure as the Core Spending Power of a Council.

    Our Spending

    The latest published figures show a projected expenditure of £218m. This figure was included in November’s draft budget. It’s clearly out of date. However, whilst the leadership team were tasked with getting this figure down, we know that actually, the £218m figure has been growing. So it’s getting harder. The government has found another £500m nationally for social care but our share in Trafford won’t be enough on its own to bridge the gap.

    If our Council Tax was at the average level in Greater Manchester we would not have this gap, but it would require Trafford to break the Government’s cap on Council Tax increases to get there.

    We’re in an especially difficult position because our reserves are so low. We will have to use reserves in the current year.

    Whilst the Tory Government has been using Local Government to carry so much of the austerity burden, I’m not expecting any future Labour Government to ride up over the hill and bestow their beneficence on Trafford. We are not in a good position.

    I suspect we’ll have to make some painful choices, but we’ll get to a balanced budget. We need to get to a position that is sustainable for a few years and that’s going to be incredibly difficult.

    Mr Micawber was wont to say “Something will Turn Up!”.

    I don’t think it will!

  • Committees may not be a good way to design a car, but they’re the way to make sure the city ticks

    There have still been a few meetings happening as we enter the summer break. Whilst I haven’t attended all in person, the importance of the subject matter has made it imperative to read the reports and catch the video streams. Committees are hard work and you still get the occasional member who can never reach a full stop, but there’s been so much else to take on board.

    Executive
    Greater Manchester Scrutiny
    Trafford’s Health Scrutiny
    Datalab update
    National Policy Forum

    Executive

    Although I’m not a member of the Council’s Executive, primarily it’s their decisions upon which I’ll be judged when it comes to being re-elected. I like to follow what they’re up to.

    Items on the agenda included:

    A new Culture Strategy for Trafford.

    The culture strategy document is available here. I like that the emphasis is as much on bringing on new talent as putting on shows. My own feeling is that Greater Manchester has improved its arts output hugely since Salford fought off the City of Manchester in winning the BBC to Media City, but Manchester still dwarfs everyone else combined. The fact that Oldham Colosseum closed shows how tough it is. I think I’d like to see a Greater Manchester approach and Trafford feeding into that with its strategy but not competing.

    Tennis Investment Project

    This involves a charging policy and the procurement of a specialist operator for the tennis courts the council owns such as at Davyhulme Park and Victoria Park. Initially, it will be trialled and I don’t think they’ve announced yet where the trials will be.

    Active Travel Reprioritisation

    The battle of the A56 cones has almost become a defining cultural phenomenon. However, it looks as though Trafford has received the go-ahead to move forward with a designed scheme that would make permanent arrangements. From the funding point of view, this means including it within the Mayor of Greater Manchester’s Challenge Fund Budget. (The Dept of Transport originally funded the cones as an emergency measure during Covid)

    Sadly, we do not get junction improvements to the Barton Road gyratory and active cyclists heading towards Altrincham will still be deposited into the fast lane of the A56. The approach to design has been to leave the junction in place, but weave a cycle and walking route on and through the central island. It’s a problem because it involves so many crossings which will delay the active traveller.

    Trafford is bidding for £1.6m for the whole scheme to provide permanent segregation from Talbot Road to the M60 including the gyratory weave and crossings. A lot of active travellers have already pointed out that the M60 is not where they usually choose to end their journey and that is a problem, at a minimum their heading to Dane Road.

    My conclusion on the A56: So the A56 scheme is not perfect; far from it. Despite this, I am still supportive of the bid. The cones have been so divisive and have brought out the worst in people. We need to move on.

    Additional Schemes

    The two Talbot Road junctions with Chester Road and with Greatstone Road have already received full business case approval and they’re particularly anticipated with a degree of eagerness. I’ve been pursuing Greatstone Road junction improvements for pedestrians for a number of years so there’s a degree of fulfilment attached to that.

    Pipeline Scheme – Davyhulme Active neighbourhood (technically route D). I really need to publicise this more. I am yet to be convinced it’s a worthwhile scheme. They’re hoping to have the business case submitted by January 2024. Essentially, it’s five low-traffic neighbourhoods (LTN)s. We know Rishi Sunak does not like LTNs, but they can be worthwhile – most of Stretford around Victoria Park is essentially a low-traffic neighbourhood, they’ve cut off exits onto Chester Road or Kingsway. My initial reaction to the Davyhulme scheme is that it condenses the traffic onto residential streets rather than main roads and that’s a problem.

    Greater Manchester Scrutiny Committee

    Again, I’m not a member, but in this case, I am a substitute member. Items discussed included.

    Topics included:

    • National Waste Strategy – essentially balancing the need to recycle more with the practicalities of fine-sorting the waste. The government are shifting their position
      Trafford’s Leader, Cllr Tom Ross gave a really top-notch presentation that’s worth watching on the GMCA site
    • Bus Fare Initiatives including capped fares. Funding is in place for 24/25. The introduction has led to an increase of 12% in patronage so GMCA is keen on continuation. To review it again next summer. Franchising will have a positive behavioural effect. In fact, franchising is so exciting in that it opens up so many possibilities. The tragedy would be if funding was pulled from 2025.

    Trafford Health Scrutiny

    Another packed meeting. Items included:

    Adaptations Team and Occupational Therapy Update – This is a major contributor to quality of life and hospital discharges. The team has a serious backlog that can be traced back to Covid. Scrutiny was looking at the action plan to alleviate the delays.

    Hospital Discharge – A broader look at resilient discharge – making sure that patients leaving hospital have the support needed to sustain themselves.

    Integrated Care System Update – This is yet another reorganisation; in this case to replace the Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG). Although it sounds dry, this is a vital element of health provision. The Greater Manchester model is proving itself in terms of life expectancy. The journey to transform health care though is only just beginning and building a system that integrates both care and health provision requires organisational change. There’s a huge amount of work going on behind the scenes. It’s vital that scrutiny monitors this change but it’s quite a significant task.

    Trafford Datalab Presentation

    This was presented last week as part of my induction on returning to the council, but I don’t need any persuasion. I love the work they do and their output is generally open data. I just want to highlight one particular page – the census data. It’s a cornucopia of intelligence but vital in targeting and championing resources.

    Labour’s National Policy Forum

    Gender recognition law has been a divisive subject in the Labour Party and elsewhere, but particularly in the Labour Party.

    I wanted to briefly state that I believe the position taken at the National Policy Forum at the weekend seems to me to be just about right. I know that others will disagree but I back Anneliese Dodds:

    We need to recognise that sex and gender are different – as the Equality Act does. We will make sure that nothing in our modernised gender recognition process would override the single-sex exemptions in the Equality Act. Put simply, this means that there will always be places where it is reasonable for biological women only to have access. Labour will defend those spaces, providing legal clarity for the providers of single-sex services.

    Anneliese Dodds – Labour Shadow Secretary of State, Women and Equalities – Guardian 24 July 2023
  • I don’t like Full Council and I’ve never been that fond of cricket either

    I don’t like Full Council and I’ve never been that fond of cricket either

    I’ve not been looking forward to full-council. There’s something very League of Gentlemen about the exaggerated amateur dramatics that you can get sucked into. It was quite funny that it clashed with Old Trafford emptying at the same time. It was fancy dress outside and (maybe) inside.

    We have two hours and thirty minutes for a council meeting. This was my first council since coming back and if anything, it’s got worse. I’m not going to go into all the issues but I think we can do better.

    These would be my proposals for improvement

    • We should remove prayers from the main body of the meeting.
    • Questions to the Executive are not working.
      We’ve made questions totally incomprehensible to the general public because it’s only a supplementary question that gets verbally spoken.
      Questions are important, but this is farcical if all the public hears is something like “So when are you going to do it?”.
      My view is that questions are so important we need to take them out of the Council Meeting and give them their own regular space. The next council meeting is in October – questions will arise before then and we need a facility to ask them that’s subject to public oversight.
    • Reports to the council are usually important. They don’t always get the time they deserve. Scrutiny might have a formal role.
    • Political motions are the main course of the meeting. They’re what gets us there. In reality most of the time, they’re of the moment and you’d struggle to find many that had a lasting impact. Nevertheless, it’s crucial that we have them. We need a facility for democratically coming together as an area to pronounce on what is deemed important. They’re a vital cog, even if a lot of the time it’s just political jousting.
      It’s just the Parties are losing the ability to draft a motion to maximum effect.

    The anatomy of a motion

    There’s actually not that much variation in motions. The Greens use a ‘preamble’ but essentially they should follow the pattern….

    This Council notes that…

    This Council believes that…

    This Council resolves to…

    There’s a reason for the pattern. The first part should just be facts. This council notes that the house was flooded. This council also notes that drainage has been reduced.

    The beliefs section can be more contentious but better to keep as much straightforward as possible eg. This council believes that flooding is avoidable and that regular maintenance is essential…

    It’s the ‘resolves to’ section where you’re trying to make your point and highlight differences.

    Keep the motion succinct. You also want to decide what is a ‘win’ – winning the vote or forcing the majority party to vote it down. I sat there amazed on Wednesday – most of the time I couldn’t work out what the opposition parties wanted to get out of their own motions.
    The Tories came with one motion against changes in firefighting provision that they ended up voting against. Maybe they just wanted to make a petty point on Andy Burnham, but they ended up voting against a motion that requested further investigation into the proposals to downgrade Sale fire-station. They completely wasted their advantage.
    The Greens had a motion on recreating a Greater Manchester Assembly. A lot of Labour people actually regret like I do, the original Greater Manchester Council being closed down by Thatcher. But the Greens got carried away and entered a whole shopping list within the motion of other things they wanted scrapping or introducing. I spoke in favour of a Greater Manchester Assembly, but was quite comfortable voting down the motion. They should have kept it simple.

    Back to those questions to the Executive

    A lot of people are raising this same question with me:

    When we can expect weed spraying to begin?

    Below is the written answer from the Executive Member

    The programme of weed spraying commenced on the 10th July 2023. The spraying is expected to take 4 – 6 weeks based on the current forecasts for July and August. An email detailing this information was sent to all members on Friday 30 June. The teams progress through the borough on a ward-by-ward basis. With some wards being larger than others it is difficult to say when the teams will be in a particular ward in advance with any accuracy at this time however, weekly communications to ward members will be issued to keep members up to date on progress.

    By Elections

    I don’t mind admitting I stayed up late for the 3 by-elections. Uxbridge was a disappointment, my suspicion is that had we given time to explain how few vehicles would be impacted by ULEZ, we’d have sailed through. You don’t change your policy in the middle of an election. So I went to bed very cross.

    Co-op Party AGM Gtr Manchester

    I really like the Co-op Party and I’m proud to be a member. We seem to get so much more business decided.

    We passed a motion supporting the mutalisation of United Utilities on Saturday. It reflected our values – the motion will progress to regional conference. We didn’t need to spend hours debating the point and sometimes unanaminity is more powerful than having the last word.

    Last few meetings at my Old Trafford school

    Had to ride to Old Trafford four times over the week, despite the last governor’s meeting being held the previous week. The school has broken up for summer now but we needed to mark the occasion.
    Good luck and Best wishes to all the children moving on to their secondary school. You will all make your mark on the world. I’m expecting great things from your your young lives!
    I’ve been chair of governors twice now – a short time at Barton Clough when it was in crisis and we brought in Tony Rae and lately at Old Trafford Community Academy with co-heads Judith Stott and Nicola Davenport. It was great to meet up with those Headteachers again at Old Trafford last week.

    Anthony Rae, Judith Stott and Nicola Davenport
    Anthony Rae, Judith Stott, Mike Cordingley and Nicola Davenport – Ms Stott’s Last Day as head

  • What a week!

    The induction’s over. It’s been quite a heavy week as the routine starts to kick in.

    Labour Away Day – Saturday

    Political parties are strange things. People have different motivations. Whether to rule or to represent, how to shape our local places, climbing up the ladder to get a better job.

    So, we’re a disparate group when we come together and even if an ‘Away Day’ feels a bit incongruous, it’s not without its merit.

    We have 41 Labour Councillors out of 63. Ten of these councillors are on ‘the Executive’. That means a lot of Councillors aren’t. This is not a problem if the Executive value and use their fellow councillors. Hopefully, there’s churn in responsibilities too. We can remain cohesive. It just mustn’t be taken for granted.

    It’s an interesting time to be Labour. It was remarked upon that we were all to the ‘left’ of Keir Starmer. He’s picked his team and they’re sticking to a script. I rather like that he’s holding back on commitments, but wish he’d learn some economics, beyond Milton Friedman, Thatcher’s mentor.

    Prepping for Planning – Monday

    I quite enjoy my monthly tour of Trafford in preparation for planning on Thursday. This time I took in Davyhulme, Timperley, Sale, Old Trafford and Hale. Then it’s putting some notes together and sending off some queries to planning officers.

    All Day School Governor Commitment – Tuesday

    I’m school governor at two schools but withdrawing from both. With Planning Committee and a new role with Manchester Foundation Trust, I’m just finding it impossible to juggle the time. It’s primarily evenings but today included a meeting with the Academy Trust. I love both my schools but you’ve got to manage your time. The evening was in a sense a normal governors’ meeting but it was the last governors’ meeting to be attended by Judith Stott. Judith has been Headteacher there for 28 years. That’s a big wrench. I’ve valued working with her. She always puts the children first.

    Judith Stott

    Hospital Trust Meeting – Wednesday

    I was warned this was a demanding role but took it anyway. I’ve joined the governing body attached to Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust (MFT)as the council’s nominee. Just to put this in context – MFT is the largest employer in Greater Manchester with 28,000 staff.

    The Chief Executive updated us on strike action and presented the annual account which will be made public once it’s been formally listed in Parliament.

    Much of it was similar to a council committee meeting. We had a presentation from the auditors who happened to be the same as Trafford Council’s auditors, and there were quite a few familiar faces in the room.

    Greater Manchester’s health organisation is undergoing quite an upheaval with the new integrated care partnership (ICP). Priorities are tackling inequalities. We’ve got to make it real. I wasn’t happy with inequalities of provision within Trafford during Covid. Actually, I was incredibly angry about it at the time and that will be a test for me.

    Evening Meeting of Scrutiny – I only watched this online but it was important viewing. Scrutiny was looking at the seven-year review of the Amey contract. I am of the view that there’s still enormous room for improvement, essentially in bringing Trafford back to a borough that looks and feels loved. We’ll know more when the review is actually tabled for approval rather than just a PowerPoint.

    Planning Committee – Thursday

    Quite a heavy meeting but we got through it. I’m happy we made the correct decisions. They won’t necessarily be the popular decisions but we have to apply the guidance unless there’s a compelling reason not to.

    Focus on the Allotment – Friday/Sat/Sunday

    Screenshot of Facebook Post announcing Moss Park Allotments open 16th July to display a stunning, award winning allotment site in Stretford with a large variety of well-tended plots bursting with ideas.

    That’s quite a build-up for our allotment site and with all the council induction and then having covid – our plot wasn’t at its best. So quite a bit of graft was required to make it presentable. I love our plot anyway. Some nice feedback on Sunday morning too from visitors.

  • AI puts the mystery back into doing the Councillor thing

    AI puts the mystery back into doing the Councillor thing

    As I strolled through the streets of this typical neighbourhood, an inexplicable feeling tugged at the back of my mind. It was as if there were a hushed emptiness lingering in the air, whispering secrets that went unnoticed by most. I couldn’t shake off the sense that there were more vacant houses than usual, their windows peering into an abyss of abandonment. Curiosity drove me to investigate further, and with an insatiable urge, I delved into the realm of statistics. What I discovered both startled and confirmed my suspicions. The data reflected a stark reality, substantiating my intuitive perception: the number of empty houses had indeed risen significantly. The numbers, like silent witnesses, silently echoed the story that my senses had perceived, unravelling a tale of shifting tides and changing landscapes in our community.

    I couldn’t find the words so I asked ChatGPT to ‘write me a paragraph on sensing that there were more empty houses than usual and finding that the statistics were backing me up’. I know it’s not the best-crafted instruction that’s ever been written, but I love what AI came up with. It’s a lot better than noticing on a leaflet-round that it’s the third seemingly long-term empty house that you’ve come across, and then picking up on similar instances on your next round.

    It was the Friends of Carrington Moss people who serendipitously supplied some statistics that pointed to it being much more than a coincidence.

    I don’t want to be drawn into the debate about whether Carrington Moss should be built on, or at least not in this instance. However, I do want to focus on the figures. They’re telling us that the extra homes we’re building are not providing the extra number of households we would expect. This is not due to demolition as we’re using a net additional dwellings figure. It might include some that are in the process of being emptied as is currently happening at Circle Court. I can’t think of anything major in 2021 that would account for Trafford’s figures, but they’re the worst. There’ll be some that have become Airbnb and similar. My instinct says the amount becoming Airbnb is nowhere near these figures but the number of empty homes could be a major factor.

    The council will have figures on empty properties. I am hoping they are equally high. We’ll see, but it seems definitely worth pursuing.