Canal27ways

Category: Weekly Updates

  • Setting Trafford’s Budget Pt 3 (Council Income)

    Setting Trafford’s Budget Pt 3 (Council Income)

    It makes sense to look at Trafford’s income on its own. Trafford’s income is largely a case of what you see is what you get, with just a few areas of choice, notably the Green Bin charge which goes into reserves.

    The Current Budget (25/26)

    The cost of Trafford’s current services being delivered for this year is £233m. This has come from:

    • Business Rates £81m
    • Council Tax £139m
    • Reserves £3m
    • Capitalisation Direction £10m

    It’s worth emphasising that there is absolutely no mention of Government funding. This conceals the enormous impact Government makes on the distribution of collected business rates.

    Trafford collects a lot more than £81m from business rates on its businesses. In 24/25 the amount was £152m. So where’s that >£70m gone?

    Trafford’s Council Tax Leaflet 25/26

    This leaflet was issued prior to a public health settlement that slightly boosted the budget. The figures at the top of this section are correct.

    The Local Government Finance Settlement for 26/27

    Despite the fact Trafford’s funding is entirely locally sourced, the Government (of all persuasions) is never going to allow Trafford free rein. In December each year the government issues the finance settlement.

    For 26/27 England’s average increase in spending will be 5.7%.

    Trafford’s increase will be 1.8%.

    This assumes Trafford will increase its council tax by the 4.99% limit.

    So, the starting point for Trafford’s budget setting is council tax going up by 4.99%, yet Trafford’s core spending will nudge up just 1.8%.

    Only 1.8%! Where’s my council tax going? Where’s the increase going?

    It’s a fair question to ask.

    I suspect that both capitalisation direction (borrowing) and use of reserves were contributing to the current year’s spending power. The trouble is that they were one-offs and we haven’t got them next year. And it has to be stated that they haven’t got us out of a hole and the reserves are finite.

    What about other councils?

    We’re not alone nationally, but within Greater Manchester it almost feels as though we are. Greater Manchester has always been mix of the relatively prosperous alongside some of the poorest. That missing chunk of business rates is retained within Greater Manchester to support less prosperous areas here. That used to be fair.

    My view is that the latest local government settlement is putting strain on the Greater Manchester consensus. Manchester Council is seeing a huge increase from this settlement, yet Trafford is a net contributor.

    Nonetheless, our council tax on domestic properties is still low in comparison to our neighbours. Does it need to go higher again?

    What next?

    The draft budget needs to be published by midnight tonight. There has to be an emphasis on the word ‘draft’. Income is only half the story. We need the draft budget to understand spending pressures or easements.

    Technically, the Local Government Finance Settlement is under consultation. I’m confident Trafford will have been making the strongest representation. There’s been some discussion in political journals that the calculation Government is making is favouring London by weighting the cost of housing. Instinctively, that feels like double counting since housing costs have to contribute to deprivation which is the major weighting within the settlement.

    However, for Government to make changes to the formula would change everyone’s settlement. They’re not going to change the formula.

    I think we do need to look at the Greater Manchester formula.

    With regard to last year’s exceptional permission to borrow, I don’t think we ought to accept a regurgitation of that permission to borrow yet more money if that turns out to be government’s solution. That way is one-way and it ends in tears.

    I want to understand business rate growth and that’s’ something I’m keen to see in the report. Trafford has benefited from growing its business rate base. That’s being reset by government but looking at the Old Trafford area, there is still potential to grow it still and that’s an aspect to give some optimism.

    Finally,

    The selfish reason for writing this that the writing is helping me understand the budget. I don’t want to rely on officers. I’ve had to go to core material. Hopefully, I’m able to share some of that knowledge and test it,

  • Setting Trafford’s Budget Pt 1

    Setting Trafford’s Budget Pt 1

    It’s my intention that this post is the first in a series of pieces on setting Trafford’s 26/27 budget. One of the main motives for writing it is to get my own understanding of it up to speed. They say that the best form of learning is getting to a position where I can explain it. You’ll have gathered that I am not yet at that point.

    So, a starting gun was fired on Wednesday 17th December 2025 with the Government’s publication of a library of documents and a statement to the House of Commons from Alison McGovern, Minister of State (Housing, Communities and Local Government).

    Link to Parliament TV

    It takes just 90 seconds for the Minister to get to a key theme of this Labour Government’s approach to financing local government.

    By breaking the link between funding and deprivation, the Tories punished poorer councils. Year after year, they exacerbated inequality. As a result, too many places in this country feel forgotten and left to fend for themselves…

    …It is why, according to our analysis, whereas under the old system deprivation scores could account for only 25% of variation in per capita funding applications, under this settlement it is up to 75%, with other important factors such as coastline, miles of road or visitor numbers making up the rest.

    So, we know that poorer councils will do better from this settlement than others and Trafford is not one of the poorest. As a Labour man, I totally support the intent. We will need to see whether Trafford is getting sufficient funding. That’s a process that will take us right through to setting the budget in March.

    Resources

    I’ll add to these as we proceed with budget setting but there’s already vital material online.

    Government Publications (Ministry of Housing, Community and Local Government – MHCLG)

    Local Government Association Material

    • LGA briefing A good summary and they’ll add more as we progress.

    Institute for Financial Studies they’re putting some good analysis and comment out there throughout this process.

    Featured Photo by RDNE Stock project: https://www.pexels.com/photo/marketing-exit-desk-notebook-7414218/

  • Fearing the worst, hoping for the best.

    Fearing the worst, hoping for the best.

    Trafford awaits its provisional financial settlement

    Might even be today, but more likely tomorrow or Thursday.

    This is the week where councils learn the amount that central government is going to top up their funding.

    We know the general rules that are going to apply. We know that the Government wants to support councils with high levels of deprivation.

    Last year Trafford had to apply for exceptional financial support which allowed the council to increase council tax beyond the normal capping of 4.99% and it provided the ability to borrow up to £9.6m to support the council’s in year budget.

    The council are currently anticipating a modest underspend of about £0.5m on this year’s budget. That would allow either reducing that £9.6m capitalisation for the year; or a small boost to the reserves.

    If it’s feasible, I’d prefer supplementing the reserves. In my view, they’re far too low.

    A favourable settlement from government will help narrow the funding gap. If it’s unfavourable, it presents some difficult choices.

    The Institute for Financial Studies (IFS) put out some analysis of the government’s budget approach for local government last month and it’s hard to see Trafford being one of the winners. Most of the policy shifts seem to work against Trafford, so it’s definitely a worrying wait but we’ll see.

    Image used under creative commons

    NEXT Conference from Berlin, Deutschland, CC BY 2.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0, via Wikimedia Commons

  • August update

    August update

    Most council committees avoid August dates for obvious reasons. However, casework never rests. And it’s an opportunity to trigger some of our own.

    Circle Court

    Circle Court Lostock, Stretford

    L&Q disposed of the empty block in Spring, once they’d rehoused the last residents.

    Residents are understandably contacting us to find out what’s happening to the block. I am trying to engage with the new owners and will update here.

    Lack of upkeep on our streets

    Our streets are in an appalling condition. Lostock and Barton was officially recorded as having its weed-spraying complete in May.

    Derbyshire Lane West

    I have not seen evidence of ANY weed-spraying in the ward, although I’m told by residents there was some.

    It seems to apply from Flixton to Old Trafford. It is deplorable. The fact that I’ve been raising it with those responsible since May doesn’t vindicate me.

    We’ve still got a minimum of just under five years on the Amey contract. There’s clearly a need for changes in political oversight.

    As ward councillor, I can only apologise.

    The intention now is to do a deep clean of the area. You may (I hope) receive letters asking you to keep the street as clear of vehicles as possible ahead of this happening.

    Development Sites

    Apart from Circle Court, we’ve got a number of additional sites in the area that are fenced off either for, or in anticipation of, active development/renovation.

    • Former Funeral Directors Barton Road, Lostock
    • Moss Vale Hotel
    • Therme
    • Surf City on Barton Dock Road – former container base (P&O)
    • Trafford Waters

    I know a lot of our residents would also highlight The Robin Hood pub in Stretford as being of concern to them.

    I’m actively trying to engage with Council Officers and directly with the developers where this is known.

    Parks

    Lostock Park

    I was delighted that yet again Lostock Park was awarded its Green Flag. It’s easy to underestimate what an achievement this is. Big Congratulations to Maureen and the team of volunteers there.

    Kingsway Park

    My colleague Councillors, Jill Axford, Shirley Procter together with our community champion, Mark Tobin, who is selected to be Labour’s candidate for next May have been working on Kingsway Park.

    They’ve been pursuing action to initiate improvements in the park and engagement by the community.

    Lookout for details of a meeting to get going together on bringing in improvement.

    Highway Trees

    I love tree-lined roads. I think they’re something that defines Trafford. However, even I am beginning to back calls in some places for some cutting back. I’ve been particularly engaged with Canterbury Road. And I’m awaiting review.

    These are two very big trees.

    Featured image: Photo by lil artsy from Pexels: https://www.pexels.com/photo/person-holding-orange-pen-1925536/

    All other photos my own

  • Gloomy Outlook for Council Finances

    Gloomy Outlook for Council Finances

    Fierce Winds Conspire, The Dark clouds Do Gather……

    There are times when, a good report with confirmation that you are doing everything that you should do, is the last thing you want to hear. The storm is coming still. 

    We’ve actually had two reports on the council’s sustainability, one following the other. Neither of the two reports provides a route to delivering council services at a level the public aspires to.

    The second of these, our Corporate Peer Challenge, from the Local Government Association is stark reading, but it does little beyond telling us that we’re right to be concerned.

    The earlier report from the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy (CIPFA) is the one that’s providing the action plan that came to Accounts and Audit Committee this week.

    There’s a danger that the issues are seen as temporary problems of liquidity that the government could solve. There’s a sense that we’re a special case and it’s nothing the public should worry about; we just need Government to listen. I worry that we’re internalising problems that we won’t solve without the public owning both the problems and the solutions.

    The public has an expectation that our parks and streets should be maintained to a much better standard than the council even dreams about. They do understand that not enough is being spent on them. They therefore have an expectation that if council tax rises, they will see an improvement. The very fact that we’re unable to meet that expectation is proof that the system is broken.

    I think the latest pronouncements from Government on future local government spending suggests that any hope of special treatment for Trafford has now receded. We’re going to have to deal with this.

    How do we balance the cost of funding statutory provision in child and adult care with delivering our everyday environmental services? Can we corral those everyday services so that they are directly commissioned by communities and not subjected to competing pressures in social care? How does community wealth building thrive in the current environment?

    Ideally, we can work with the combined authority and Mayor Andy Burnham. However, the risk is that the Government’s targeting of funding puts us on a different trajectory to most of our Greater Manchester colleague councils. That risk only emphasises the fact that communities are the only allies still irrevocably facing the coming storm with us.

    We must not fall into myopic thinking that balancing the books will be the only test that the public places on us. More than anything they judge us on the state of their neighbourhood. If we can’t insulate spending on neighbourhoods within the council’s spend, I think we ought to be considering alternative models. It may be time for parish councils and/or area boards to come of age.

    Photo by Eg Civic Ferio from Pexels: https://www.pexels.com/photo/sea-under-a-storm-cloud-18608634/

  • Weekly Update

    Weekly Update

    Quite a light week for meetings. Planning committee met on Thursday with a comparatively light agenda, but that was my only obligatory meeting.

    We had our monthly advice surgery on the 5th. Since I won’t be standing for re-election next May (2026), potential replacements are proactively getting involved now, ahead of the selection process. I feel awkward. I want to separate myself from choosing a successor. Candidates to replace me had been invited to come along to the advice surgery. I didn’t know in advance. I was very uncomfortable. It’s an odd position to be in.

    I hasten to underline that this is just for the Labour candidacy. I never take the voters for granted. The Labour candidate will be selected 31st May. I continue to be a Labour Councillor until 7th May 2026.

    In terms of significant casework, I followed up on social media complaints about NHS lists at Revive Dental at Nags Head Circle. NHS patients had been informed they needed to sign up for private provision to remain on a dentist’s roll. We’re seeing this a lot throughout Trafford, but I’ve been asking questions of both Public Health and the Integrated Care Board (NHS).

    I was pleased to see clearance of the bike lanes on Barton Dock Road together with some lovely planting of flowers on the verge.

    That’s what I call a cycle lane!

    They even watered the flowers the following week, so they’ve done a really good job.

    Stretford Town Centre

    I know the town centre is not Lostock and Barton Ward, but many residents here (including myself) consider themselves proud Stretfordians, and we’re passionately interested in how the regeneration of Stretford meets our needs.

    The last vestiges of the Mall close at the end of August. Some businesses, such as Heron and Aldi retain their premises; others will have new premises in the new layout, and others will sadly depart.

    I’m particularly sad to see Uplift go. It’s no exaggeration to say that the Uplift café has personified the spirit of Stretford since before Covid. They’ve kept going, they’ve delivered art, craft, music and energy to the community when it’s been most needed.

    If you’ve not been following the co-owner Georgie’s video’d walks to work each Saturday on Facebook, you really should dip in and watch a few while they’re online.

    The Uplift Collection

    Frustratingly, we still don’t have a firm grasp of the grand design for Stretford. We have themes of longer hours and an increase in the night-time economy. There’s an aspiration for independent retail, but at the same time, there’s an expectation of corporate uniformity in terms of operating hours. I know there’s a tension there for some smaller operators who are being asked to commit to the project.

    Hopefully, we’ll hear exciting news soon about who’s coming. I think those existing traders need to hear it too.

    There’s been good news that Stretford Beach has won an award. It needs café seating and trade, but I like how it might evolve.