I always look forward to election day whatever the outcome. I never forget how hard we the people had to fight for every man and woman to have the vote. Incredibly, it’s still less than 100 years since the battle was finally won for every adult to have a say in the running of their towns.
And as I reflect back at the outcome of Thursday, I pay tribute to everyone involved, from the staff at the polling stations to the candidates and campaigners of all parties, and most particularly the voters. There were cheers and tears at the end of it all, and aching limbs, but I never forget how privileged we are compared to so many in this world.
Well the votes have been counted, so what was the verdict? Decisively, Trafford voted Labour. We won the most votes right across the borough. The people have given us a clear mandate to challenge these Tory policies that are proving so damaging: the privatisation by stealth of our NHS, the cuts to our Police and Fire services. We might still have a Conservative Council but Labour won the popular vote in Trafford.
So it is with renewed energy that we come out of the election and new Labour councillors in Sale Moor, Urmston and Broadheath. We will be stepping up our work right across Trafford in our communities and alongside businesses to build our local economy, protect vital services and above all, to deliver a future for our youth.
According to the Local Government Information Unit (LGIU), Trafford will simply be a Conservative hold and the borough does not make it into the organisation’s top 50 councils to watch. Perhaps Trafford’s results in the past 8 years have been so consistently uneventful that they’ve stopped looking. From a disinterested observer’s point of view, Trafford looks fairly stuck in its political map. Labour has a stronghold in the northern area but the Conservatives have won consistently in the western, central and southern areas of the borough. Elections have been extraordinarily predictable with only Urmston and Sale Moor wards being prone to any change of preference. From the LGIU’s point of view, Labour might be expected to take the remaining Conservative seats in Urmston and Sale Moor but that would still leave them marooned on 24 councillors – nowhere near sufficient to dent the Conservative majority – they currently have 37 councillors.
Since the media tends to use the LGIU for its briefing on the Local Elections, the message has been consistent: don’t expect surprises in Trafford. I think they’re wrong.
Looking at last year’s results:
Ward
Winning Margin 2011
Swing required for change of party
Altrincham
716
10% Con to Lab
Ashton upon Mersey
553
8% Con to Lab
Bowdon
1956
28% Con to Lab
Broadheath
112
2% Con to Lab
Brooklands
823
11% Con to Lab
Bucklow-St Martins
879
20% Lab to Con
Clifford
1956
33% Lab to Green
Davyhulme East
311
5% Con to Lab
Davyhulme West
405
6% Con to Lab
Flixton
281
4% Con to Lab
Gorse Hill
1272
24% Lab to Con
Hale Barns
2048
29% Con to Lab
Hale Central
1289
19% Con to Lab
Longford
1460
16% Lab to Con
Priory
517
8% Lab to Con
Sale Moor
234
4% Lab to Con **
St Mary’s
527
8% Con to Lab
Stretford
1157
19% Lab to Con
Timperley
896
10% Con to Lab ***
Urmston
345
5% Lab to Con **
Village
309
5% Con to Lab ***
** Swings required are to hold seat, as Lab won in 2011
*** Swings required are swings required from Conservative vote to take previously Lib Dem wards. (3way marginals won by Conservatives in 2011)
The projected shares of the vote nationally were Cons 35% Lab 36% Lib Dem 16% in May 2011. The polls are now showing Cons 31% Lab 41% and Lib Dems 11%. So if you believe those polls, there’s been a 4.5% swing from Conservatives to Labour since May 2011. Labour should feel confident of gaining the remaining Sale Moor and Urmston seats, Broadheath and Flixton are realistic targets. There then follows a whole clutch of seats where any improvement on a 5% swing could see seats tumbling across Trafford. Davyhulme East, Davyhulme West, and Village would all fall if 6 voters in 100 switch to Labour. Timperley too has to be in our radar as it’s clear the Lib Dem vote is collapsing there and we’ve moved from being third placed to the only viable alternative to the Conservatives.
It’s a big ask, but not impossible, that the BBC and Sky will be rushing to the George Carnall in the early hours of Friday morning to cover some very close finishes in the Tories’ flagship authority.
Without question it would be good for Trafford if it was close fought. The other figure to look out for is the total votes for each party. We are aiming to win the popular vote in Trafford.
After last week’s astonishing attacks on PCSOs from the Conservative Councillors of Bowdon and Hale Barns, it was good to see Chief Constable Fahy’s resolute support for PCSOs on this week’s Online Chat.
I don’t want to pick on Councillors Hyman and Sharp but their views were striking in their lack of any awareness of policing outside the extraordinarily affluent neighbourhoods they represent.
I would urge both Councillors to widen their outlook urgently. PCSOs have made a huge difference to the policing in places like Gorse Hill. We can’t use the golf club or the elite social circles of Bowdon to influence our neighbourhood policing, we need our community officers; and frankly they’ve been brilliant. It’s great that Chief Constable Fahy has picked this up from the policing consultation. We’re going to have to defend policing that works because it’s clear the Tories are wildly out of touch.
Extracts from open Webchat with Chief Constable Peter Fahy
Is it true PCSOs are to be scrapped from 2013?
Our PCSOs have a distinct role which has proved very popular with the public. To give them additional powers would only take them away from this core role of engaging with the public and knowing the local community. They are dealing with the issues important to the public.
Their funding within the overall force budget is ring fenced until April 2013 and after that the Police and Crime Commissioner can decide whether he/she wants to increase or reduce the numbers but personally given the support that they have from the public and councillors I think they have a strong future.
What is your stance on PCSOs being moved to the private sector?
Chief Constable Peter Fahy:
I’m not aware of any force talking about the transfer of PCSOs to the private sector. It is not something we are considering in GMP. Obviously all of us would love to have more officers on the front line but there is a financial reality here. There are a number of officers in so-called back office roles who make full use of their police expertise for the benefit of the public such as in our intelligence units.
We have moved a significant number of officers from office jobs on to the front line in recent months. Over recent years, there has been a political obsession with the numbers of police officers rather than looking at what they do. This is particularly so in the cases of metropolitan forces such as GMP.
We’re always happy to give the tremendous work of this local (non-political) group circulation through our web pages.
Chair’s Report March 2012
The Friends of Lostock Park group has had another successful year.
We have continued to develop good relationships with young people around the skate bowl. The skate bowl has continued to be popular and is used constantly throughout both summer and winter. The extension funded through the Playbuilder’s fund is complete and has made the bowl even more popular. It is now more accessible to people of all ages and abilities. The young people who use the bowl regularly help to keep it clean and tidy.
Bailey, a regular user of the bowl won the award in the recent Trafford Partnership Awards for the under 25’s category. He was given the award for his voluntary work in cleaning the bowl and inspiring others to do the same.
Congratulations to Bailey
Once again a big thank you must go to Darren & Sam for all their hard work and support. In June 11 the parks group were awarded £1000 from the North Trafford Sports Fund. This money was funded to set up set skating/biking sessions for the under 12 years. This group soon got going through positive feedback from others and Daz and Sam have been able to give plenty of younger people opportunities to develop their skills and confidence. The more established group of older teenagers organise themselves and it is great to watch them as they share skills, take turns and generally enjoy themselves.
Trafford Housing Trust West area community panel kindly awarded funding in 2011 towards improving the inside of the bowling hut and renovate the toilet, as well as providing 2 more benches around the park. People have told us that the benches are appreciated as they provide good resting points for those who can’t walk far in one go or simply somewhere to watch the world go by.
The work to the bowling hut has been complemented by work from the Community Payback Team. They painted inside the bowling hut, painted all the exterior railings with anti-climb paint, tidied the garden area and did several litter picks around the full park. They also cut back bushes around the park.
Two local Friends of Lostock Park group volunteers George Duckett and John Barnes fitted the new kitchen units into the bowling hut and a big thank you goes to them both for their work.The bowling hut is now a great place to hold meetings and events in.
Following the skate bowl extension we discussed whether there was a need for 2 more sculptures. The result was a bench designed by the wood carver with the young people at the bowl in the shape of a skate board which many of their families use to sit and watch the children.
The park is looking good in the early spring with bulbs and flowers beginning to show.
Some young people have expressed an interest in learning to bowl on the bowling green and we will try over this summer to organise some learning sessions of mixed ages.
Plans for the coming year.
The biggest focus for this year as a group must be achieving the building of a play area dedicated to children under 5 years.
We have been awarded £ 20,000 from the Urmston THT west community panel towards this and are in the process of seeking funding through Veolia the waste company.
This is something that would clearly make a huge improvement to the park as a whole.
If there is something that you think will make the park even better please get in touch with us and tell us. With your help we will continue to make Lostock Park a great place to visit and enjoy.
Once again a big thank you must be given to the THT Urmston West community panel for their continued support of the work of the Friends of Lostock Park.
Lostock Park is your park. We need your help to make it a nicer place for everyone to enjoy.
Please encourage people to become a member of the group and help us continue the great work already accomplished.
We saw a nastier, more contemptuous and arrogant side to the Conservative Party at the council meeting on Wednesday. It was emanating from the councillors of the wealthiest wards in Hale and Bowdon.
There was the flippant throwaway line that employers would not want to employ Labour supporters; and yes it was a joke, and we can take a joke. They didn’t expect a PCSO to get through the gates of the wealthy.
Trade unionists are derided and even pedestrians and children must not be allowed to slow down the Bentleys of Bowdon. They can deny the low-paid any protection, but do not even think of reining in the levels of pay at the top of the organisation.
The Tories may have reformed from the party that set soldiers onto protesters in Peter’s Field for the Peterloo Massacre. But it’s in their DNA and when it shows through and you’re reminded of just who these people are.
I’m fairly certain that Liam Fox is not a regular reader of this blog but I was struck by the similarity of thinking between last week’s piece on taxes and today’s call for the Chancellor:
“Although the coalition agreement may require the chancellor to raise personal tax allowances, he should use the proceeds of spending reductions to cut employers’ national insurance contributions across the board.”
Just because Liam Fox is a standard bearer for the right doesn’t mean Labour should dismiss this call. Cutting the employer’s contribution reduces the cost of employment. The employer can either increase the workforce, invest or bank the reduced costs to increase profits. Corporation Tax will take a share of the increased profit, but if it’s increased workforce or investment, these have to be good for the economy. I’d love Ed Balls to join Liam Fox in finding cause; (as long as we resist emphatically any call for relaxation of employment regulation).
These are extremely well-educated and multilingual professionals. Many are in mixed marriages with kids who have lived on two or three continents. These people don’t belong anywhere and don’t feel beholden to any national project. They want to pay as little in tax as they can, and they want to be safe.
This chimes with my own view that pursuing these people around the world to tax their income is likely to prove ultimately futile. In Dickens’s ‘Great Expectations’ the clerk, John Wemmick places great importance on ‘Portable Property’. The electronic age has given the means to move and dissipate ‘Portable Property’ around the world in the blink of an eye. The most that the tax-collectors can aspire to is to be a nuisance to these super-rich; unless, of course we tackle ‘Fixed Property’ (Land and Buildings).
Master Sgt. Jerry Morrison, U.S. Air Force, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
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