Author: Mike Cordingley

  • Election Week – Trafford is one to watch

    According to the Local Government Information Unit (LGIU), Trafford will simply be a Conservative hold and the borough does not make it into the organisation’s top 50 councils to watch. Perhaps Trafford’s results in the past 8 years have been so consistently uneventful that they’ve stopped looking. From a disinterested observer’s point of view, Trafford looks fairly stuck in its political map. Labour has a stronghold in the northern area but the Conservatives have won consistently in the western, central and southern areas of the borough. Elections have been extraordinarily predictable with only Urmston and Sale Moor wards being prone to any change of preference. From the LGIU’s point of view, Labour might be expected to take the remaining Conservative seats in Urmston and Sale Moor but that would still leave them marooned on 24 councillors – nowhere near sufficient to dent the Conservative majority – they currently have 37 councillors.

    Since the media tends to use the LGIU for its briefing on the Local Elections, the message has been consistent: don’t expect surprises in Trafford. I think they’re wrong.

    Looking at last year’s results:

    Ward Winning Margin 2011 Swing required for change of party
    Altrincham
    716 10% Con to Lab
    Ashton upon Mersey
    553 8% Con to Lab
    Bowdon
    1956 28% Con to Lab
    Broadheath
    112 2% Con to Lab
    Brooklands
    823 11% Con to Lab
    Bucklow-St Martins
    879 20% Lab to Con
    Clifford
    1956 33% Lab to Green
    Davyhulme East
    311 5% Con to Lab
    Davyhulme West
    405 6% Con to Lab
    Flixton
    281 4% Con to Lab
    Gorse Hill
    1272 24% Lab to Con
    Hale Barns
    2048 29% Con to Lab
    Hale Central
    1289 19% Con to Lab
    Longford
    1460 16% Lab to Con
    Priory
    517 8% Lab to Con
    Sale Moor
    234 4% Lab to Con **
    St Mary’s
    527 8% Con to Lab
    Stretford
    1157 19% Lab to Con
    Timperley
    896 10% Con to Lab ***
    Urmston
    345 5% Lab to Con **
    Village
    309 5% Con to Lab ***

    ** Swings required are to hold seat, as Lab won in 2011

    *** Swings required are swings required from Conservative vote to take previously Lib Dem wards. (3way marginals won by Conservatives in 2011)

    The projected shares of the vote nationally were Cons 35% Lab 36% Lib Dem 16% in May 2011. The polls are now showing Cons 31% Lab 41% and Lib Dems 11%. So if you believe those polls, there’s been a 4.5% swing from Conservatives to Labour since May 2011. Labour should feel confident of gaining the remaining Sale Moor and Urmston seats, Broadheath and Flixton are realistic targets. There then follows a whole clutch of seats where any improvement on a 5% swing could see seats tumbling across Trafford. Davyhulme East, Davyhulme West, and Village would all fall if 6 voters in 100 switch to Labour. Timperley too has to be in our radar as it’s clear the Lib Dem vote is collapsing there and we’ve moved from being third placed to the only viable alternative to the Conservatives.

    It’s a big ask, but not impossible, that the BBC and Sky will be rushing to the George Carnall in the early hours of Friday morning to cover some very close finishes in the Tories’ flagship authority.

    Without question it would be good for Trafford if it was close fought. The other figure to look out for is the total votes for each party. We are aiming to win the popular vote in Trafford.

  • A Welcome Interjection from Chief Constable

    After last week’s astonishing attacks on PCSOs from the Conservative Councillors of Bowdon and Hale Barns, it was good to see Chief Constable Fahy’s resolute support for PCSOs on this week’s Online Chat.

    I don’t want to pick on Councillors Hyman and Sharp but their views were striking in their lack of any awareness of policing outside the extraordinarily affluent neighbourhoods they represent.

    However, given that Councillor Sharp is Trafford’s sole member of the Police Authority and Councillor Hyman is a magistrate and member of the Probation Trust Board, it really matters. I would urge both Councillors to widen their outlook urgently. PCSOs have made a huge difference to the policing in places like Gorse Hill. We can’t use the golf club or the elite social circles of Bowdon to influence our neighbourhood policing, we need our community officers; and frankly they’ve been brilliant. It’s great that Chief Constable Fahy has picked this up from the policing consultation. We’re going to have to defend policing that works because it’s clear the Tories are wildly out of touch.

    Extracts from open Webchat with Chief Constable Peter Fahy

    Is it true PCSOs are to be scrapped from 2013

    6:12
    fahey
    Chief Constable Peter Fahy: 

    Our PCSOs have a distinct role which has proved very popular with the public. To give them additional powers would only take them away from this core role of engaging with the public and knowing the local community. They are dealing with the issues important to the public.

    Their funding within the overall force budget is ring fenced until April 2013 and after that the Police and Crime Commissioner can decide whether he/she wants to increase or reduce the numbers but personally given the support that they have from the public and councillors I think they have a strong future.

    What is your stance on PCSOs being moved to the private sector?

    6:15
    Fahy
    Chief Constable Peter Fahy: 

    I’m not aware of any force talking about the transfer of PCSOs to the private sector. It is not something we are considering in GMP. Obviously all of us would love to have more officers on the front line but there is a financial reality here. There are a number of officers in so-called back office roles who make full use of their police expertise for the benefit of the public such as in our intelligence units. We have moved a significant number of officers from office jobs on to the front line in recent months. Over recent years, there has been a political obsession with the numbers of police officers rather than looking at what they do. This is particularly so in the cases of metropolitan forces such as GMP.

    Monday March 19, 2012 6:15 Chief Constable Peter Fahy

     

     

  • Friends of Lostock Park – Annual Report

    We’re always happy to give the tremendous work of this local (non-political) group circulation through our web pages.

    Chair’s Report March 2012

    The Friends of Lostock Park group has had another successful year.

    We have continued to develop good relationships with young people around the skate bowl. The skate bowl has continued to be popular and is used constantly throughout both summer and winter. The extension funded through the Playbuilders fund is complete and has made the bowl even more popular. It is now more accessible to people of all ages and abilities. The young people who use the bowl regularly help to keep it clean and tidy.

    Bailey a regular user of the bowl won the award in the recent Trafford Partnership Awards for the under 25’s category. He was given the award for his voluntary work in cleaning the bowl and inspiring others to do the same.

    Congratulations to Bailey.

    skateboarder

    Once again a big thank you must go to Darren & Sam for all their hard work and support. In June 11 the parks group were awarded £1000 from the North Trafford Sports Fund. This money was funded to set up set skating/biking sessions for the under 12 years. This group soon got going through positive feedback from others and Daz and Sam have been able to give plenty of younger people opportunities to develop their skills and confidence.
    The more established group of older teenagers organise themselves and it is great to watch them as they share skills, take turns and generally enjoy themselves.

    Trafford Housing Trust West area community panel kindly awarded funding in 2011 towards improving the inside of the bowling hut and renovate the toilet, as well as providing 2 more benches around the park. People have told us that the benches are appreciated as they provide good resting points for those who can’t walk far in one go or simply “somewhere to watch the world go by”.

    The work to the bowling hut has been complemented by work from the Community Payback Team. They painted inside the bowling hut, painted all the exterior railings with anti-climb paint, tidied the garden area and did several litter picks around the full park. They also cut back bushes around the park.
    Two local Friends of Lostock Park group volunteers George Duckett and John Barnes fitted the new kitchen units into the bowling hut and a big thank you goes to them both for their work.The bowling hut is now a great place to hold meetings and events in.

    Following the skate bowl extension we discussed whether there was a need for 2 more sculptures. The result was a bench designed by the wood carver with the young people at the bowl in the shape of a skate board which many of their families use to sit and watch the children.

    spring

    The park is looking good in the early spring with bulbs and flowers beginning to show.

    Some young people have expressed an interest in learning to bowl on the bowling green and we will try over this summer to organise some learning sessions of mixed ages. 

    Plans for the coming year.

    The biggest focus for this year as a group must be achieving the building of a play area dedicated to children under 5 years.

    We have been awarded £ 20,000 from the Urmston THT west community panel towards this and are in the process of seeking funding through Veolia the waste company.

    This is something that would clearly make a huge improvement to the park as a whole.

    If there is something that you think will make the park even better please get in touch with us and tell us. With your help we will continue to make Lostock Park a great place to visit and enjoy.

    Once again a big thank you must be given to the THT Urmston West community panel for their continued support of the work of the Friends of Lostock Park.

    Lostock Park is your park. We need your help to make it a nicer place for everyone to enjoy.

    Please encourage people to become a member of the group and help us continue the great work already accomplished.

    Maureen Reilly.

  • Contemptible Conservatism returns to Council – private police forces and tally ho racers

    Perhaps there’s insurgency in the Tory ranks in Trafford, perhaps it’s complacency, I don’t know the reason, but we saw a nastier, more contemptuous and arrogant side to the Conservative Party at the council meeting on Wednesday. Particularly emanating from the wealthiest wards in Hale and Bowdon,  we can assume that this is not the drowning panic of those about to lose their seats.

    Should we be glad that these Tories are showing their true colours,  be it contempt for PCSOs? – (I suppose that a community police officer is not likely to get through the security on some of the mansions of Hale Barns – these are people used to private security and are all for extending it to the police force). It worries me that the way in which any community provision is dismissed as namby pamby, trade unionists are derided and even pedestrians and children must not be allowed to slow down the Bentleys of Bowdon. They can deny the low-paid any protection, but do not even think of reviewing the levels of pay at the top of the organisation. There’s definitely a place for class solidarity in the Tory psyche. There was the flippant throwaway line that employers would not want to employ Labour supporters; and yes it was a joke, and we can take a joke.

    The Tories have reformed beyond belief from the party that set soldiers onto protesters in Peter’s Field for the Peterloo Massacre. It’s just every now and again their dna shows through and you’re reminded of just who these people are. Time to knock some of that complacency out of them.

    Mike Cordingley

     

  • Ripples in the water? More on taxes

    I’m fairly certain that Liam Fox is not a regular reader of this blog but I was struck by the similarity of thinking between last week’s piece on taxes and today’s call for the Chancellor:

    “Although the coalition agreement may require the chancellor to raise personal tax allowances, he should use the proceeds of spending reductions to cut employers’ national insurance contributions across the board.”

    Just because Liam Fox is a standard bearer for the right doesn’t mean Labour should dismiss this call. Cutting the employer’s contribution reduces the cost of employment. The employer can either increase the workforce, invest or bank the reduced costs to increase profits. Corporation Tax will take a share of the increased profit, but if it’s increased workforce or investment these have to be good for the economy. I’d love Ed Balls to join Liam Fox in finding cause; (as long as we resist emphatically any call for relaxation of employment regulation).

    Another press article catching my eye was this piece on the culture that prevails amongst the Banking elite:

    These are extremely well-educated and multilingual professionals. Many are in mixed marriages with kids who have lived on two or three continents. These people don’t belong anywhere and don’t feel beholden to any national project. They want to pay as little in tax as they can, and they want to be safe.

    This chimes with my own view that pursuing these people around the world to tax their income is likely to prove ultimately futile. In Dickens’s ‘Great Expectations’ the clerk, John Wemmick places great importance on ‘Portable Property’. The electronic age has given the means to move and dissipate ‘Portable Property’ around the world in the blink of an eye. The most that the tax-collectors can aspire to is to be a nuisance to these super-rich; unless, of course we tackle ‘Fixed Property’ (Land and Buildings).

  • On Taxes: Making our tax structure right for the times we’re in

    “In this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.”

    Benjamin Franklin 1789

    Without tax revenue the state would not be able to provide the services a civilised society needs to function; there’d be no army, no schools, no nhs, no roads, no waste collection etc etc etc.

    But the sad predicament we face now is that following the global financial meltdown, the tax take isn’t sufficient to pay for the services provided today and we’re having to borrow more. And as we borrow more, the interest payments take up an increasing and alarming proportion of the spend.

    This spiralling debt will inevitably fall on future generations to be repaid. It will be our children and grandchildren that pay in the decades to come for the services we use today. But they’ll still make that repayment through the taxes taken from our grandchildren’s production of goods and services. Nothing can be said to be certain except that it’ll be taxes that pay off the debt in the end.

    The debate between the political parties has inevitably centred on the level of public spending;

    • reduce the spend and you stop adding to the debt.
    • But reduce too quickly, and the economy grinds to a halt because you reduce the size of the market for those goods and services

    That debate will continue with regard to the rate of deficit reduction and it’s right to do so. Interestingly though, and perhaps due to the inevitability of taxes, little discussion takes place around the tax structure itself. There’s been well publicised targeting of notorious tax avoiders, the Philip Greens and Vodaphones of this world. It’s been personalised and theatrical but not deeply objective in it’s solutions to getting more tax out of the current generation.

    It’s remarkable how many taxes we have. There isn’t an exact number because it gets blurred around the edges as to what constitutes a tax.

    Tax Description Comments
    Income Tax ‘What it says on the Tin’. A tax on the income from earnings, pensions and interest accrued from savings. Deducted at source from workers, negotiated via accountants and solicitors from the ‘owners’. Not perfect in its administration but essentially correct
    Employee’s National Insurance Contribution A tax on wages up to £844 per week @ 12% and 2% thereafter. The cleaner gets another 12p taken out of every extra pound they earn. The chief executive of Royal Bank of Scotland gets 2p taken out of every extra pound they earn. There is an argument for abolition and merging with income tax but requires removal of 2% rate and for standard rate to apply throughout
    Employer’s National Insurance Contribution A tax on jobs and the wages page to workers. The more staff a company takes on, the more national insurance the business pays Abolish
    Corporation Tax A tax on profits for businesses Essentially Correct
    Capital Gains Tax A tax on profits for individuals (not including main home. Although establishing which property is your main home is a subject prone to manipulation, notoriously by MPs of ill-repute. Essentially Correct
    VAT A tax on spending Abolish or reduce significantly
    Inheritance Tax A tax on estate at death. Ridiculed throughout the 20th Century by the aristocracy and treated by them as a voluntary tax incurred by the foolish and those who failed to see it as an enjoyable sport in it’s avoidance. Requires massive tightening of rules
    Road Tax A tax on ownership of a motorised vehicle Abolish
    Fuel Duty A tax on the fuel used Essentially Correct although international agreement should be sought for air travel to be included
    Alcohol and Tobacco Duties A tax on habits disapproved of Essentially Correct
    University Student Fees A hypothecated tax on receiving higher education Abolish
    Council Tax A tax on the value of the home you live in based on it’s value in 1991 and capped at £320,000.01. Your home might be a £5m mansion, but the council tax will be the same as a house worth a penny over £320k. Requires removal of band G ceiling so that the most expensive properties pay a proportional progressive rate
    Street Car Parking Charges A levy on parking usually in town centres There is an argument for removing this where town centre is in decline or direct competition from out of town centre such as the Trafford Centre
    Business Rates A tax collected by Councils and handed over to Government based on the business property Essentially Correct

    There’s many more duties, levies license charges etc. than shown in the above list, but even a perfunctory scan across the taxation landscape highlights that as a society we’re taxing many activitiess that we want to take place, and failing to tax practices that we want to discourage.

    In an economy that is desperate for jobs and spending, isn’t it ludicrous that we slap taxes on the vital stimulants for growth? Most startling of all is the jobs tax of employer’s national insurance contribution. I want Labour to be radical and support it’s abolition. It would be a break with the Beveridge Covenant that the welfare state should be the shared responsibility of worker and business. But wealth in the modern world has shifted to the speculators, asset strippers and financial traders or the traditional landed aristocracy and new property tycoons. None of this wealth is a huge employer of labour – and instead we hit the businesses who are.

    I’d love to get rid of VAT as well. We want to encourage spending. It’s a regressive tax where the poor pay a larger proportion of their income. It’s costly to administer. The main argument for it existing seems to be that on the whole, people become blind to it. And we pay a huge amount of tax this way. In France it accounts for over 50% of their tax-take. It’s the definitive stealth tax.

    In a thriving economy the case for University Fees is strong, but right now, when we need to be doing our utmost to provide the best trained workforce, it’s madness to be imposing such high fees.

    I’m not going to argue that removing VAT and abolishing the employer’s element of national insurance would be self-financing, although, there would inevitably be a considerable boost.

    So we would have to shift the burden elsewhere. We certainly need to chase tax evasion harder to reduce the £70bn estimated to be lost each year through effectively fraudulent tax returns, but we’re never going to reduce evasion to zero.

    I am attracted to Vince Cable’s mansion tax. I would also argue strongly for a Land Tax, it’s doing the economy no good to have speculators sitting on land that is not being released for housing, agriculture, leisure etc. It’s interesting that so much of the land in the UK is still owned by the aristocracy (nearly a third of the total) and it’s very much concentrated into the hands of those on the Sunday Times Rich List.

    There’s a number of advantages to the taxation of both mansions and land:

    • They’re not portable, they can’t be smuggled out of the country to Monaco.
    • There’s an obvious correlation between ownership and wealth (it’s not hitting the poor by taxing mansions)
    • Non compliance can be dealt with by simply going through the courts to take ownership of a proportion of an estate; it then becomes an asset on the national balance sheet to be counted against the national debt and we would also be entitled to rental income.
    • It would suppress land values, enabling more economic growth

    The extent to which you can switch partially or wholly from VAT and the job tax to Land / Mansion is a debatable point, but the principle is clear. Taxes may be inevitable, but the tax structure in place to deal with this recession is different from that needed in the years of plenty.

    Mike Cordingley